隧道涌水量预测计算方法综述  

Research progress on predictive calculation methods for tunnel water inflow

作　　者：张兴波 李俊[2] 李雁冰 魏祥 黄晓敏[2] ZHANG Xingbo;LI Jun;LI Yanbing;WEI Xiang;HUANG Xiaomin(Yunnan Investment Group Road Construction Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650032,China;School of Architecture and Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;Yunnan Communications Investment Group Highway Construction Fourth Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650100,China)

机构地区：[1]云南交投公路建设有限公司,云南昆明650032 [2]昆明理工大学建筑工程学院,云南昆明650500 [3]云南交投公路建设第四工程有限公司,云南昆明650100

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第11期166-174,184,共10页Yangtze River

基　　金：云南省交通运输厅科技计划项目(云交科教编[2020]18号);云南交投集团公路建设有限公司资助项目(QT00MM 202310001)。

摘　　要：预测隧道涌水量对于保障隧道施工安全、进度、洞室稳定和人身安全问题至关重要。国内外学者已提出多种预测方法,但是存在不同适用条件,根据隧道的水文地质条件选取恰当的方法能有效提高预测精度。对解析公式法、经验公式法、数值法、随机性数学模型预测法等多种涌水量预测方法进行了系统梳理和分析,通过对这些方法的基本原理及适用条件进行综合分析,讨论了当前涌水量预测方法存在的不足之处,并提出改进方向。结果表明:解析公式法应用简单,但结果偏差较大;经验公式法源于工程案例总结,适用于相似条件下隧道涌水量预测;数值法通过数学模型模拟,可以解决复杂水文地质条件下的涌水量预测,但对勘察设计阶段获取的水文地质参数提出更高的要求;随机性数学模型方法需要大量数据来保证结果的准确性;其他方法主要依赖于地理信息系统(GIS)技术、同位素分析法等手段,通过科学分析来识别并判断地下水量及其流动通道的地质特征,需要充分的数据支持和详尽的地下勘探结果作为依据。研究成果可为实际工程中选择合适的涌水量预测方法提供参考。Prediction on tunnel water inflow is a critical factor for ensuring the safety,progress,and stability of tunnel construction,as well as for addressing issues related to personnel safety.Numerous prediction methods have been proposed by scholars both domestically and internationally;however,each method is subject to specific conditions to obtain optimal applicability.The accurate selection of an appropriate prediction method based on the hydrogeological conditions of the tunnel is essential for improving prediction accuracy.This paper presents a systematic review and analysis of various prediction methods for tunnel water inflow,including analytical formulas,empirical formulas,numerical methods,and stochastic mathematical model methods.Through a comprehensive examination of the fundamental principles and applicable conditions of these methods,the paper highlights the limitations of current water inflow prediction techniques and discusses potential directions for their improvement.The findings indicate that while analytical formula methods are straightforward to apply,they often result in significant deviations.Empirical formula methods derived from analysis of engineering cases are most suitable for predicting water inflow in scenarios with similar hydrogeological conditions.Numerical methods can predict water inflow under complex hydrogeological conditions using mathematical models,but these methods require high-quality hydrogeological parameters from the survey and design phases.Stochastic mathematical model methods,although promising,demand extensive datasets to ensure the accuracy of predictions.Furthermore,other methods such as those relying on Geographic Information Systems(GIS),isotope analysis,and other advanced techniques,require substantial data support and detailed underground exploration results to accurately assess groundwater volume and flow paths.The findings of this review provide valuable insights for selecting the most appropriate prediction method based on the specific requirements of practical

关 键 词：隧道涌水量预测 经验公式预测 解析公式预测 数值法预测 随机性数学模型预测 复杂地质条件 

分 类 号：U456.32[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]