优良淀粉植物紫玉盘柯在中国的潜在适生区预测  

Potential Suitable Area of the Starch Plant Lithocarpus uvariifolius in China

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作  者:邵彦清 陈雪仪 吴思霓 张世泓 吴玉芬 李玉玲 何春梅[2] 罗晓莹[3] 林杰妤 唐光大 SHAO Yan-qing;CHEN Xue-yi;WU Si-ni;ZHANG Shi-hong;WU Yu-fen;LI Yu-ling;HE Chun-mei;LUOXiao-ying;LIN Jie-yu;TANG Guang-da(College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642,Guangdong China;Guangdong Academy of Forestry,Guangzhou 510520,Guangdong China;College of Tourism and Geography,Shaoguan University,Shaoguan 512005,Guangdong China;College of Food Science,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642,Guangdong China)

机构地区:[1]华南农业大学林学与风景园林学院,广东广州510642 [2]广东省林业科学研究院,广东广州510520 [3]韶关学院旅游与地理学院,广东广州512005 [4]华南农业大学食品学院,广东广州510642

出  处:《亚热带植物科学》2024年第4期297-307,共11页Subtropical Plant Science

基  金:广东省林业局科技项目(2023KJCX001);广州市从化区野生动植物资源本底调查项目(h20230760)。

摘  要:研究紫玉盘柯Lithocarpusuvariifolius在中国的潜在分布范围及其对气候变化的响应,对其栽培引种和保护利用有重要意义。基于紫玉盘柯99个有效分布点和28个环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型和Arc GIS,模拟其在当前和未来3种气候变化情景下的潜在适生区,并探索影响紫玉盘柯地理分布的主要环境因子。结果表明:(1)MaxEnt模型能较准确地预测紫玉盘柯的潜在分布区域,AUC值为0.988,精度较高。(2)紫玉盘柯地理分布主要受最冷季度降水量(bio19)、温度季节性变化标准差(bio4)、降水量季节性变化(bio15)、海拔(elev)、年均降水量(bio12)的影响,降水量因子的综合贡献率最大,是影响紫玉盘柯分布的关键因素。(3)当前气候下,紫玉盘柯的适生区总面积为22.63万km^(2),约占中国陆地面积的2.4%。(4)未来气候情景下,紫玉盘柯的潜在适生区总面积随气候变化大幅增加,且明显向北向西延伸,有向高纬度和高海拔地区扩张的趋势。(5)未来不同气候情景下紫玉盘柯的分布中心均向西北迁移至广西河池。Exploring the potential distribution range of Lithocarpus uvariifolius in China and its response to climate change is crucial for its cultivation and conservation.Based on 99 effective distribution points and 28 environmental variables of L.uvariifolius,we used the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS to simulate its potential habitat under current and three future climate change scenarios.We also investigated the main environmental factors that influence the geographical distribution of L.uvariifolius.The results indicated that:(1)The MaxEnt model was able to predict the potential distribution area of L.uvariifolius more accurately,with an AUC value of 0.988.(2)The distribution of L.uvariifolius was mainly affected by the precipitation in the coldest season(bio19),temperature seasonality(bio4),precipitation seasonality(bio15),elevation(elev),and annual precipitation(bio12).The precipitation factor had the largest combined contribution,which was a key factor affecting the distribution of L.uvariifolius.(3)Under the current climate,the total area of suitable areas for L.uvariifolius was 2.263×10^(5) km^(2),accounting for about 2.4%of China's land area.(4)The total area of potential suitable areas for L.uvariifolius would increase significantly under future climate scenarios.It would obviously extend northward and westward,with a trend towards expanding to the high latitudes and high altitudes.(5)The distribution centers of L.uvariifolius were projected to migrate northwest to Hechi of Guangxi,under different future climate scenarios.

关 键 词:紫玉盘柯 MaxEnt模型 潜在适生区 气候变化 环境因子 

分 类 号:Q948.5[生物学—植物学]

 

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