数字服务税对中国数字贸易的影响——基于CGE模型的分析  

The Impact of Digital Services Tax on China’s Digital Trade:Analysis Based on CGE Model

作　　者：杜莉[1] 何格 DU Li;HE Ge

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2024年第10期41-54,共14页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72121002)。

摘　　要：文章采用CGE模型模拟数字服务税对中国经济的影响,发现数字服务税对宏观经济变量的影响较小,但对数字贸易和数字服务产业会产生显著影响。当他国对中国数字服务出口征收10%的数字服务税时,中国数字服务出口将下降15.69%,数字服务产业产出将下降0.48%,就业将下降0.89%。若中国采取相应措施,对数字服务进口征收同等数字服务税,数字服务出口仍将显著下降,且数字服务进口将下降超10%;数字服务产业因进口替代效应所受影响有所减小,产出将下降0.17%,就业几乎不受影响。数字服务税对数字贸易各领域的影响存在差异,其他商务服务、个人文化和娱乐服务受到的影响更大,金融、保险服务受到的影响较小。This paper uses CGE model to simulate the impact of digital services tax on the Chinese economy and it is found that the impact of digital services tax on macroeconomic variables is relatively small,but it will have a significant impact on digital trade and digital services industry.When other countries impose a 10% digital services tax on the export of China's digital services,the export of China's digital services will decrease by 15.69%,the output of digital services industry will decrease by 0.48% and the employment will decrease by 0.89%.If China takes corresponding measures to impose an equivalent digital services tax on the import of digital services,the export of digital services will still significantly decrease and the import of digital services will decrease by more than 10%;due to the import substitution effect,the impact on digital services industry will be reduced,resulting in a 0.17% decrease in the output and almost no impact on the employment.The impact of digital services tax on various fields of digital trade varies,with other business services as well as personal culture and entertainment services being more affected,while financial and insurance services being less affected.

关 键 词：数字服务税 数字贸易 CGE模型 替代弹性 

分 类 号：F741.2[经济管理—国际贸易]