全球价值链结构变动对我国高质量发展的影响——国民收入与碳排放视角  

The impact of structural changes in global value chains on China's high quality development:From perspectives of national income and carbon dioxide emissions

作　　者：蒋雪梅[1] 李鑫茹 杜雯翠[1] 汪寿阳[2,3] JIANG Xuemei;LI Xinru;DU Wencui;WANG Shouyang(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,Beijing;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [3]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第10期3091-3114,共24页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71873091,72273093,72003133);北京市自然科学基金(9214023)。

摘　　要：高质量发展和“双碳”战略目标要求兼顾经济收益和环境成本.跨国投资在推动全球产业链供应链调整的同时,也带来属权经济收益分配和属地碳排放责任划分的争议.本文基于区分内外资企业的国际间投入产出表,采用反事实和情景分析方法探讨投资布局调整引致的全球价值链结构变动及其对中国国民收入和碳排放的影响.研究表明:2005–2016年全球价值链结构变动对中国国民收入和碳排放的累计正向贡献分别为15.23%和20.50%;以2016年为基准,若所有OECD (organization for economic co-operation and development)经济体均撤走在华投资,其引致的产业迁出将使得当年中国国民收入下降8.37%~8.71%,生产侧碳排放下降12.32%~12.88%,单位减碳的国民收入损失约为800美元;若在此过程中,中国能积极参与并主导全球产业链向欠发达地区的转移,单位减碳的国民收入损失约为700美元,略小于发达经济体主导产业转移所带来的经济损失.本文通过预判全球价值链结构变动的经济和环境影响,可为推进高质量发展提供理论支撑和政策启示.China's high-quality development and carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals both require an overall consideration to economic benefits and environmental cost.Transnational investment promotes the reconstruction of global industrial and supply chains,which also leads to dispute of environmental responsibilities under the accounting of economic benefits based on the ownership principle and the accounting of carbon emission based on the territorial principle.In this paper,we employed an inter-country inter-industry input-output database that distinguishes the activities of multinational enterprises(MNEs) and introduced counterfactual analysis and scenario analysis to evaluate impact of structural change in GVC on China's gross national income(GNI) and CO_2emissions.There was significant industrial shift toward China from 2005 to 2016,boosting China's GNI and CO_(2emissions) by 15.23% and 20.50% respectively compared to 2016levels.For the future shift,the scenario analysis shows that compared with the relocation of GVC led by developed economies,the relocation led by China would yield lower negative impact on China's GNI when reducing same amount of China's CO_2emissions.The negative impact on GNI and CO_(2emissions) varies by sector initiating the relocation and by economy undertaking the relocation.Our analysis provides policy implications for China's future GVC relocation and high-quality development.

关 键 词：全球价值链 国民收入 碳排放 地区间投入产出模型 企业异质性 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]