碳达峰背景下中国制造业结构的多目标协同进化预测  

Multi-objective coevolution prediction of China's manufacturing structure in the context of carbon peaking

作　　者：牛鸿蕾[1] 刘志勇[2] NIU Honglei;LIU Zhiyong(School of Management Engineering,Xuzhou University of Technology,Xuzhou 221018,China;School of Civil Engineering,Xuzhou University of Technology,Xuzhou 221018,China)

机构地区：[1]徐州工程学院管理工程学院,徐州221018 [2]徐州工程学院土木工程学院,徐州221018

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第10期3130-3146,共17页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(20BJY084)。

摘　　要：制造业结构的高质量转型是进一步激发节能减排潜能的关键.为精准预测制造业结构调整的趋势,本文以增长、就业、节能、降碳为多重目标,以投入产出方程及碳达峰目标为主要约束条件,构建制造业结构的多目标优化模型,并利用基于双群体的协同进化框架求解,得出如下结论:在确保碳达峰的前提下,制造业结构的调整能有效促进各目标之间的权衡、取舍及协调统一.随着所占比重的持续增加,通讯设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业,仪器仪表及其他制造业最终将成为在制造业中占比最大的两类行业.制造业的低碳高质量发展不能简单地依赖于压缩高耗能的产能,实现生产原料、生产过程、产品等的深度低碳化转型或结构优化才是关键所在.The high-quality transformation of the manufacturing industry structure is the key to further stimulate the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction.Taking growth,employment,energy saving and carbon reduction as multiple objectives,and the input-output equation and the goal of carbon peaking as the main constraint conditions,in order to accurately predict the adjustment trend of manufacturing structure,this paper constructs a multi-objective optimization model of manufacturing structure,and uses the dual population coevolution framework to solve it,drawing the following conclusions:Under the premise of carbon peaking,the adjustment of the manufacturing structure can effectively promote the balance,trade-off and coordination among the objectives.As their proportions continue to increase,the communication equipment,computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing,and the instrumentation and other manufacturing will ultimately become the two categories of industries with the largest proportion in the manufacturing industry.The low-carbon and high-quality development of manufacturing industry cannot simply rely on the reduction of energy-intensive production capacity,and its key is to achieve profound low-carbon transformation or structural optimization of raw materials,productive processes,and products.

关 键 词：碳达峰 制造业结构 多目标协同进化 

分 类 号：F201[经济管理—国民经济] F205