中小企业稳存量与扩增量的就业政策研究  

Policy research on stabilizing and expanding employment of SMEs

作　　者：郎有泽 杨秋怡 楼国强 LANG Youze;YANG Qiuyi;LOU Guoqiang(Institute for Six-Sector Economy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;Fudan Development Institute,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;Financial Research Center,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学六次产业研究院,上海200433 [2]复旦大学发展研究院,上海200433 [3]复旦大学金融研究中心,上海200433

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第10期3147-3168,共22页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71933001);复旦-拉美大学联盟2024年度研究课题(FLAUCIDEALAB2403);复旦大学–金光集团思想库研究项目(JGSXK2410);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金(2023A1515110281)。

摘　　要：本文针对中小企业建立一个劳动力市场搜寻匹配模型,用以分析对中小企业稳存量、扩增量的就业政策效果.理论模型发现:企业生产率提高和岗位稳定对就业率的传导来自于两方面的共同促进作用:一是企业期望利润上升所带来的直接效应,经营改善释放更多就业岗位;二是市场紧度上升所带来的均衡效应,失业工人能够更快速地找到工作,更高的保留工资使得就业工资水平得以进一步提高.校准后的模型通过反事实分析比较了税费减免、岗位补贴、培训补贴和失业救济这四类就业政策的“稳存量”和“扩增量”效果,最后提出针对性政策建议.具体来讲,税费减免在“扩增量”上表现最优,岗位补贴在“稳存量”上表现最优;培训补贴虽然“扩增量”效果一般,但“稳存量”效果良好且最为均衡;失业救济在保障社会福利和减少就业机会之间存在权衡取舍.This paper develops a search and matching model in the labor market to analyze the effects of macroeconomic policies on stabilizing and expanding employment for small and medium Enterprises(SMEs).The model finds that the transmission in response to the aggregate shocks of firm's productivity and job stability results from an interaction of two effects:The direct effect of rising firm's expected profits,which releases more job vacancies,and the equilibrium effect of rising market tightness,which allows unemployed workers to find jobs more quickly,thus leading to a higher reservation wage.The model is then calibrated to the China monthly macroeconomic data and compares the stabilizing and expanding effects of four types of employment policies(tax reduction,job subsidy,training subsidy,and unemployment benefit) through counterfactual analysis.After robustness checks,we accordingly provide pertinent policy recommendations.Specifically,tax reduction performs best in expanding employment,while job subsidy performs best in stabilizing employment;The expanding effect of training subsidy policy is not substantially significant,but its stabilizing effect is the most balanced;Unemployment benefit has a trade-off between improving social welfare and decreasing job opportunities.

关 键 词：就业政策 搜寻匹配 市场紧度 中小企业 稳岗扩岗 

分 类 号：F241[经济管理—劳动经济]