计及不确定性的中长期双边协商分时段电量电价确定方法  

Method for Determining the Electricity Price for Medium-and-long-term Bilateral Negotiation in Different Periods Considering Uncertainties

作　　者：徐奇锋 庄晓丹 程杰 陈梦瑶 俞静 王建军[3] XU Qi-feng;ZHUANG Xiao-dan;CHENG Jie;CHEN Meng-yao;YU Jing;WANG Jian-jun(Zhejiang Electric Power Trading Center Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310020,China;Zhejiang Huayun Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310051,China;School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江电力交易中心有限公司,杭州310020 [2]浙江华云信息科技有限公司,杭州310051 [3]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2024年第31期13433-13441,共9页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72071077);国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目(2023FD06)。

摘　　要：中长期带曲线交易是实现电力中长期市场与现货市场衔接的有效途径。由于双边协商是绿电交易的两种方式之一,故中长期双边协商分时段电量电价如何确定是中长期带曲线交易研究过程中不可回避的问题。针对新能源发电出力和用户负荷双重不确定性,提出了一种基于分布鲁棒优化和纳什讨价还价理论的中长期双边协商分时段电量电价确定方法。首先针对源荷双侧不确定性,基于Wasserstein距离构建了最大成交电力分布不确定性模糊集。其次,构建了基于分布鲁棒优化的电量确定模型。再次,依据确定电量和利益共同体总收益构建基于纳什讨价还价理论的电价确定模型。最后,通过算例仿真对本文所提方法进行验证分析。结果表明所提方法考虑了源荷双侧不确定性,能够有效解决中长期双边协商分时段电量电价确定问题。Mid-to-long-term trading with curve is recognized as an effective means to realize the connection between the mid-to-long-term electricity market and the spot market.Since bilateral negotiation is one of the two methods for green power trading,the determination of time-sharing electricity and the time-sharing trading price of mid-to-long-term bilateral negotiation transaction is an issue that must be addressed in the study of mid-to-long-term with curve trading.A method based on distributionally robust optimization(DRO)and Nash bargaining theory was proposed to determine the time-sharing power and trading price in the mid-to-long-term bilateral negotiation transaction,considering the dual uncertainties of renewable energy power generation output and customer load.Firstly,an ambiguity set for the maximum deal power distribution uncertainty was constructed based on the Wasserstein distance to address the uncertainties of power output and loads.Secondly,a quantity determination model based on distributional rubust optimization was developed.Following this,a price determination model based on Nash bargaining theory was established,taking into account the determination of time-sharing electricity and the total benefit of the community of interest.Finally,the proposed method was verified and analyzed through a case study.The results indicated that the proposed method effectively addressed the issue of determining the time-sharing power and trading price in mid-to-long-term bilateral negotiations by considering the dual uncertainties of power output and loads.

关 键 词：双边协商 双重不确定性 分布鲁棒优化 纳什讨价还价理论 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] N34[自然科学总论]