山洪灾害危险性评估研究综述  

A Review Study on Flash Flood Disaster Hazard Assessment

作　　者：原文林[1] 赵小棚 杨逸凡 郭进军[1] 胡少伟 YUAN Wen-lin;ZHAO Xiao-peng;YANG Yi-fan;GUO Jin-jun;HU Shao-wei(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2024年第11期21-26,共6页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3004401)。

摘　　要：山丘区地形复杂、雨洪资料相对匮乏,非工程措施成为应对山洪灾害的主要途径,山洪灾害危险性评估作为山洪灾害预报预警确定重点靶区、靶点及灾情综合评估的重要依据,已成为山洪灾害防灾减灾非工程措施中的热点与难点问题。从辨析山洪灾害危险性评估的内涵出发,归纳总结了山洪灾害危险性评估方法的研究现状,并根据评估指标体系的差异性将山洪灾害危险性评估方法分为基于特征参数方法和基于情景推演方法两种,其中情景推演方法根据降雨致灾因子的多样性和动态变化性,能够实现山洪灾害危险性动态评估,有助于提高危险性评估精度,是未来的研究趋势。Due to the complex terrain of hilly areas and the relative lack of rainfall and flood data,non-engineering measures have become the main way to deal with mountain torrents.As an important basis for the prediction and early warning of mountain torrents,the risk assessment of mountain torrents has become a hot and difficult issue in the non-en-gineering measures of mountain torrents disaster prevention and mitigation.Based on the analysis of the connotation of mountain torrent hazard assessment,this paper summarizes the research status of mountain torrent hazard assessment methods.According to the differences of assessment index system,mountain torrent hazard assessment methods are di-vided into two methods based on characteristic parameters method and scenario deduction method.Scenario deduction method can realize the dynamic assessment of mountain torrent hazard according to the diversity and dynamic change of rainfall disaster causing factors,which is helpful to improve the accuracy of hazard assessment and is the future research trend.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 危险性评估 特征参数 权重确定 情景推演 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]