基于IPAT-LMDI模型的山西省黄河流域用水人文驱动因素分析  

Analysis of Human Driving Factors of Water Consumption Evolution in Shanxi Yellow River Basin Based on IPAT-LMDI Model

作　　者：亓雅莉 王雪妮[2] 赵忠峰 QI Ya-li;WANG Xue-ni;ZHAO Zhong-feng(Shanxi Water Resources Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Taiyuan 030032,China;College of Water Resources Science and Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China)

机构地区：[1]山西水资源研究所有限公司,山西太原030032 [2]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,山西太原030024

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2024年第11期55-59,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：华北水利水电大学河南省黄河流域水资源节约集约利用重点实验室开放研究基金(HAKF202104);山西省水利科学技术研究与推广项目(2022GM051)。

摘　　要：为控制山西省黄河流域用水总量,推进流域水资源节约集约利用,通过构建IPAT-LMDI模型,分析山西省黄河流域时空用水量演变的驱动效应。研究结果表明,人口规模效应和富裕程度效应为增量效应,技术效应为减量效应;2003~2020年,人口规模效应和富裕程度效应分别增加用水量6.1206×10^(8)、1.6867×10^(10)m^(3),技术效应减少用水量1.6138×10^(10)m^(3),总效应为正值,并随时间呈增长趋势;河口-龙门、龙门-三门峡、三门峡-沁河和沁河流域的技术效应对用水量增加的抑制作用明显小于汾河流域,表明山西省黄河流域中上游子流域仍具有一定节水潜力,可通过节水技术进一步控制该区域用水总量。研究结果可为山西省黄河流域水资源合理利用提供借鉴和参考。To control the total water consumption in the Yellow River Basin of Shanxi Province and promote the effi-cient and intensive use of water resources in the basin,an IPAT-LMDI model was constructed to analyze the driving effects of spatiotemporal water consumption evolution in the Yellow River Basin of Shanxi Province.The results indicate that the effect of population size and affluence is incremental effects,while the technology effect is a reduction effect.From 2003 to 2020,the population size effect and affluence effect increased water consumption by 6.1200×10^(8)m^(3) and 1.6867×10^(10)m^(3) respectively,while the technology effect reduced water consumption by 1.6138×1010m^(3).The total effect is positive and shows an increasing trend over time.The technical effect of the Hekou-Longmen,Longmen-Sanme-nxia,Sanmenxia-Qinhe and Qinhe Basins on the inhibition of water consumption increase are significantly smaller than that of the Fenhe Basin,indicating that the aupper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin in Shanxi Province still have certain water-saving potential,and the total water consumption in the regions can be further controlled through water-saving technologies.The research results can provide reference and guidance for the rational utilization of water resources in the Yellow River Basin of Shanxi Province.

关 键 词：IPAT-LMDI模型 用水量 山西省黄河流域 驱动因素 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]