水风光综合基地多风险量化及长期多目标协调优化调度方法  

Multi-risk Quantification and Long-term Multi-objective Coordinative Optimal Dispatch Method for Hydro-Wind-Solar Integrated Energy Base

作　　者：赵志鹏 于志辉 程春田[2] 王进 冯仲恺 ZHAO Zhipeng;YU Zhihui;CHENG Chuntian;WANG Jin;FENG Zhongkai(School of Electrical Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;Institute of Hydropower&Hydroinformatics,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resource,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学电气工程学院,辽宁省大连市116024 [2]大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁省大连市116024 [3]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏省南京市210098

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2024年第22期118-130,共13页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(52239001);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(DUT22RC(3)088)。

摘　　要：水风光一体化运行可以发挥多种能源优势,提高综合效益。风光能源大规模并入水电基地,因不确定性增加致使系统能源消纳和电力供应问题更加突出,将面临更高弃水和缺电风险。针对该问题,提出了一种评估各时段蓄水状态的风险量化方法。基于该方法构建了考虑弃水量、发电量、弃水风险和缺电风险的多目标调度模型,基于双层优化,采用动态规划、离散微分动态规划和逐步优化相结合的算法进行高效求解,将分层序列法与线性加权和法嵌入算法中,以协调多目标矛盾。最后,以中国某水风光综合基地为工程背景模拟调度,并将所提模型与传统模型进行对比验证。研究结果表明,所提模型能较好地刻画运行风险,通过调整水电运行方式能合理消纳新能源,并获得更高稳定收益;模型能以较高效率完成求解,并满足实际调度时效性要求;在实际场景与预测场景出现偏差时,能显著降低弃水损失,通过改变水电运行方式以适应新能源日益增长带来的运行风险。The hydro-wind-solar integrated operation can leverage multiple energy advantages and improve comprehensive benefits.The large-scale integration of wind and solar energy into hydropower bases has exacerbated the problems of energy accommodation and power supply due to the increasing uncertainty,resulting in higher risks of water spillage and power shortage.In this regard,a risk quantification method for evaluating the water storage states in different periods is proposed.Based on this method,a multi-objective dispatch model is built considering the water spillage,power generation,water spillage risk,and power shortage risk.The model employs bi-level optimization that combines dynamic programming,discrete differential dynamic programming,and a progressive optimization algorithm to efficiently solve the problem,embedding the lexicographic method and weighted sum method into the proposed algorithm to coordinate the multi-objective contradiction.Finally,the dispatch is simulated using a hydro-wind-solar integrated energy base under construction in China as the engineering background,and the proposed model is verified by comparison with the traditional model.The results shows that the proposed model can better characterize the operation risks and adjust the hydropower operation mode to reasonably accommodate energy and achieve higher stable profits;the model can efficiently solve the problem and meet the timeliness requirements of practical operation,significantly reducing the water spillage losses when deviations occur between the actual and predicted scenarios,and adapting to the operation risks arising from the increasing growth of the renewable energy in the power grid by changing hydropower operation mode.

关 键 词：风险量化 弃水 缺电 优化调度 不确定性 水风光综合基地 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]