基于格局演变的湄洲岛景观生态健康评价与预测  

Evaluation and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Health of Meizhou Island Based on Pattern Evolution

作　　者：李钦 丁国昌[1] LI Qin;DING Guochang(College of Landscape Architecture and Art,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou Fujian 350007)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学风景园林与艺术学院,福建福州350100

出　　处：《山东林业科技》2024年第5期10-18,共9页Journal of Shandong Forestry Science and Technology

基　　金：泉州海洋文化景观网络构建与整体性保护研究(FJ2022BF061)。

摘　　要：密集的人类活动导致湄洲岛景观生态健康发生变化,揭示湄洲岛景观生态健康状况及预测情况,为海岛环境保护与生态管理等工作提供理论依据。选取2010、2013、2016、2019、2022年5期影像数据,构建基于PSR模型的湄洲岛景观生态健康评价体系,并运用熵值法和灰色预测模型,对2025、2028、2031年的湄洲岛健康状况进行预测。结果显示:近12年来,湄洲岛景观生态健康状况因受人为因素的影响由2010年“健康”水平逐步降到2022“一般病态”水平,总体景观生态健康状况呈下降趋势;经预测,湄洲岛2025、2028年健康等级为“一般病态”水平,2031年为“病态”水平。湄洲岛的景观生态健康状况面临着严重的威胁,亟需采取科学的保护与恢复措施以提高海岛管理水平。Intensive human activities have led to the changes in the landscape ecological health of Meizhou Island,revealing the landscape ecological health status and prediction of Meizhou Island,which provides the theoretical basis for the island environmental protection and ecological management and other work.Five periods of image data in 2010,2013,2016,2019,and 2022 were selected to construct the landscape ecological health evaluation system of Meizhou Island based on the PSR model,and the entropy value method and gray prediction model were applied to predict the health status of Meizhou Island in 2025,2028,and 2031.The results showed that over the past 12 years,the landscape ecological health of Meizhou Island had gradually decreased from the"healthy"level in 2010 to the"generally sick"level in 2022 due to the influence of anthropogenic factors,and the overall landscape ecological health is on a downward trend.It was predicted that the health level of Meizhou Island would be"generally sick"in 2025 and 2028,and"sick"in 2031.The ecological health of the landscape of Meizhou Island is under serious threat,and scientific protection and restoration measures are urgently needed to improve the island's management level.

关 键 词：湄洲岛 景观格局演变 景观生态健康 PSR模型 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]