鄱阳湖流域水产养殖经济效率时空演变及其影响因素研究——基于SBM-XTTobit-GWR模型  

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Aquaculture Economic Efficiency and Influencing Factors in the Poyang Lake Basin:Based on the SBM-XTTobit-GWR Model

作　　者：邬志龙 吴玮 余进祥[3] 戴银根 杨英 阙江龙 闵佳玲 李琴 WU Zhi-long;WU Wei;YU Jin-xiang;DAI Yin-gen;YANG Ying;QUE Jiang-long;MIN Jia-ling;LI Qin(Institute of Ecological Civilization,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;College of Applied Economics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;Jiangxi Aquatic Life Protection and Rescue Center,Nanchang 337009,China;Fudan Development Institute,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学生态文明研究院,江西南昌330013 [2]江西财经大学应用经济学院,江西南昌330013 [3]江西省水生生物保护救助中心,江西南昌337009 [4]复旦大学发展研究院,上海200433

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2024年第10期2191-2203,共13页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42461040);江西省社会科学基金青年项目(24YJ25);江西省自然科学基金面上项目(20224BAB203047);江西省水产养殖种质资源普查项目(KYC-2023054)。

摘　　要：鄱阳湖流域是中国内陆重要水产养殖区,研究其水产养殖经济效率有助于促进地区渔业可持续、高质量发展转型。基于渔业经济投入产出面板数据,采用超效率SBM模型、XTTobit模型和GWR模型等方法探究鄱阳湖流域2016~2021年间水产养殖经济效率时空变化及其影响因素空间差异。结果表明:(1)鄱阳湖流域水产养殖经济效率空间差异显著且呈波动上升趋势,效率平均值由0.30增加至0.56,且赣北地区明显高于赣南地区。(2)养殖规模、人均GDP、人口密度、渔业经济转化率和地理高程与水产养殖经济效率呈显著正相关,其GWR回归系数影响效应呈南北梯级增强或衰减;渔业机械化程度对水产养殖经济效率的正向影响在大水面养殖的赣北地区更为显著;专业养殖从业人员占比和自然水体利用率对赣南地区水产养殖经济效率分别为正、负影响。(3)未来应根据效率分区和因子作用空间差异,宏观统筹渔业资源要素投入,分区推进规模化特色化发展,因县施策谋求高效发展转型。The Poyang Lake Basin of Jiangxi Province is an important part of the inland aquaculture area in China.Exploring aquaculture economic efficiency is conducive to the utilization of fishery resources and the sustainable and high-quality transition of fisheries in this area.Based on the input-output panel data of aquaculture,this study integrated the SBM-XTTobit-GWR model to explore the spatial-temporal evolution of aquaculture economic efficiency from 2016 to 2021.The spatial differences of influencing factors in the Poyang Lake Basin were analyzed.The results showed that:(1)The spatial difference of aquaculture economic efficiency was significant,showing a fluctuating upward trend.The average value of efficiency increased from 0.30 to 0.56,and efficiency value in the north was obviously higher than that in the south.(2)The scale of aquaculture,GDP per capita,population density,fishery economic conversion rate and elevation were positively correlated with the aquaculture economic efficiency.The effect of GWR regression coefficient of these factors increased or decreased in steps from the north to the south.The positive effect of mechanization degree on aquaculture economic efficiency was more obvious in the large surface aquaculture area in north Jiangxi.The proportion of professional aquaculture employees and the utilization degree of natural waters were positively or negatively correlated with the aquaculture economic efficiency.(3)In the future,government should reassign fishery resources according to the efficiency zones and the spatial differences of influencing factors,promote the specialization and high efficient development of fishery industry in large-scale.

关 键 词：水产养殖经济效率 超效率SBM模型 XTTobit回归 GWR模型 时空演变 影响因素 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]