基于改进输出系数模型的江西省农业氮磷面源污染分析  

Analysis of Agricultural Surface Source Pollution in Jiangxi Province Based on Improved Output Coefficient Modeling

作　　者：傅春[1,2,3] 黄慧敏[1] 陈毓迪 刘业忠 FU Chun;HUANG Hui-min;CHEN Yu-di;LIU Ye-zhong(School of Infrastructure Engineering,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;Jiangxi Regional Manager Research Institute,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;School of Public Policy and Administration,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学工程建设学院,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学江西省区域政策研究院,江西南昌330031 [3]南昌大学公共政策与管理学院,江西南昌330031

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2024年第10期2219-2235,共17页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家社会科学基金年度项目(18BGL187)。

摘　　要：为更好明晰江西省农业面源污染时空格局,在县域尺度上,考虑区域地形、气候等因素差异,改进传统输出系数模型,引入降雨、土壤、地表径流等驱动因子,计算各区域氮磷污染物综合入河系数,将原有区域污染负荷产生量转化为污染物入河量,分析了2010~2020年间农田种植、畜禽养殖、水产养殖和农村生活等方面的污染程度。结果表明,2020年江省农业面源污染TN和TP的平均综合入河系数分别为0.473和0.567,总体呈现北高南低的分布特征;氮磷面源污染综合入河负荷量分别为9.50万t和1.41万t,总体现先增后降的变化趋势,中间高四周低的分布态势,全省排放强度较高区域主要集中在中部地区。畜禽养殖和农田种植污染负荷排放量整体呈逐年下降趋势,但依旧为农业氮磷污染的主要来源,占污染负荷总量的80%以上,养殖型和种养混合型是农业面源污染负荷中的主要类型。研究可为江西省今后农业面源污染防治、流域内水体污染治理相关决策部门提供参考依据。To gain a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of agricultural non-point source pollution in Jiangxi Province,we conducted an analysis at the county scale of the Province.Factors such as regional topography and climate variations were systematically considered for the refinement of the traditional output coefficient model.This involved the incorporation of influential driving factors,including rainfall,soil characteristics,and surface runoff.The calculation of the comprehensive river input coefficients for nitrogen and phosphorus pollutants in each region allowed for the transformation of the original regional pollution load production into quantifiable pollutant input into rivers.Our investigation extended to the analysis of pollution levels associated with various aspects,such as farmland cultivation,livestock and poultry farming,aquaculture,and rural living,spanning the years 2010 to 2020.The findings revealed that,in 2020,the average comprehensive river input coefficients for TN and TP in agricultural non-point source pollution in Jiangxi Province were 0.473 and 0.567,respectively.These values exhibited a general distribution pattern characterized by higher concentrations in the northern regions and lower concentrations in the southern areas.The comprehensive river input loads of nitrogen and phosphorus non-point source pollution were determined to be 95000 tons and 14100 tons,respectively.These values demonstrated an overall trend of an initial increase followed by a subsequent decrease,with elevated concentrations observed in central areas and lower concentrations in the surrounding regions.Regions with heightened emission intensity were predominantly concentrated in the central part of the Province.While the overall pollution load emissions from livestock and poultry farming,as well as farmland cultivation,exhibited a consistent annual decline,they persisted as primary sources of agricultural nitrogen and phosphorus pollution,accounting for over 80%of the total pollution load.Livestoc

关 键 词：农业面源污染 改进输出系数模型 综合入河系数 江西省 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]