基于钻探成效时间序列的油气储量增长预测新方法  

A new method for the prediction of oil and gas reserve growth based on time series of drilling effectiveness

作　　者：吴欣松[1] 郭元岭[2] 李萌[2] Wu Xinsong;Guo Yuaning;Li Meng(College of Geosciences,China University of Petroleum(Beijing);Sinopec Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)地球科学学院,834000 [2]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《中国石油勘探》2024年第5期148-155,共8页China Petroleum Exploration

基　　金：中国石化国内上游导向项目“中西部重点领域油气富集模式约束下的增储趋势预测”(YTBXD-CGKT-2023-1-04-001)。

摘　　要：油气储量增长潜力的科学预测是油公司开展油气勘探规划与部署的重要前提和基础,但是目前常用的油气储量增长预测方法均存在一定的缺陷。基于储量升级的预测方法,对于勘探程度较低的探区往往不具备应用的条件;基于勘探成效外推的预测方法则缺乏时间系列的概念,难以揭示储量发现随时间的变化规律;基于生命旋回的预测方法与勘探工作量投入之间没有建立任何联系,因此其结果也难以在油气勘探规划与部署中发挥有效的指导作用。本研究将勘探成效与时间序列二者有机地结合,提出了基于钻探成效时间序列的油气储量增长预测新方法,建立了操作性强的建模与预测流程,提出了不同增储阶段针对性强的模型选用策略。实际应用表明,基于钻探成效时间序列的油气储量增长预测方法对于揭示探区的油气储量发现规律,评价其增储潜力,以及指导勘探规划部署等均具有重要意义。The scientific prediction of growth potential of oil and gas reserves is an important prerequisite and foundation for the planning and strategic deployment of exploration efforts by oil companies.However,existing methods have certain deficiencies in predicting oil and gas reserve growth.For example,the prediction methods based on reserve upgrading often have inadequate conditions for application in areas with low level of exploration;The prediction methods based on extrapolation of exploration results lack the concept of time series,so they are difficult to reveal the change rules of oil and gas reserves with time duration.The prediction methods based on life cycles have no connection with exploration workload,so they are difficult to play an effective guiding role in exploration planning and deployment.By properly integrating the petroleum exploration results and time series in this study,a new reserve growth prediction method based on time series of drilling effectiveness has been proposed,and a highly operational modeling and prediction process have been established.In addition,selection strategies for the targeted models in various reserve increase stages have been put forward.The practical application shows that this prediction method is of great significance in revealing oil and gas reserves discovery rules,evaluating the potential of reserve growth,and informing the exploration planning and deployment in the exploration block.

关 键 词：油气储量增长 预测方法 油气勘探规划 

分 类 号：TE19[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]