基于灰色关联分析的航天装备合同履行风险评价及应用研究  

Research on Fulfilment Risk Assessment of Space Equipment Contract Based on Gray Relational Analysis

作　　者：李琦 朱晓林 蒲希 余敬东 李琳 Li Qi;Zhu Xiaolin;Pu Xi;Yu Jingdong;Li Lin(Military Representatives Bureau of Space Systems,Beijing 100088,China)

机构地区：[1]航天军代局,北京100088

出　　处：《质量与可靠性》2024年第4期61-66,共6页Quality and Reliability

摘　　要：针对新形势下航天装备合同监管工作高质高效发展需求,结合军事代表工作实际,研究提出了基于灰色关联分析的航天装备合同履行风险评价方法。首先,通过风险识别确定影响合同履行的因素,建立合同履行风险评价指标体系,使用层次分析法确定评价指标的权重;然后,采用灰色关联分析得到所有指标当前状态与最劣状态之间的灰色关联度,实现合同履行风险的量化评价;最后,以某军代室在监管的合同为对象开展工程应用,结果表明应用该模型得到的合同履行风险等级与专家评价结果相符。根据合同履行风险等级分级结果针对性实施监管策略,能有效为监管力量调度提供决策支撑,为军事代表机构提供一定的监管工作思路。To meet the demamds for the rapid development of space equipment contracts in the new situation,and considering the practical working situation,the paper puts forward a new fulfilment risk assessment of space equipment contracts based on gray relational analysis.Firstly,we need identify the influencing factor of contract performance through risk identification,and establish an indicator system,using Analytic Hierarchy Process to calculate the weights of evaluation indicators.Secondly,we obtain the grey correlation degree between the current state and the worst state of all indicators based on gray relational analysis to the quantitative evaluation of contract performance risks.The engineering example shows that this method is reasonable and effective.We carry out a classification supervision based on the risk levels of contract fulfilment.It is helpful to provide a decision support when facing the problems of contract supervision,such as inefficiency,lacking of methods,and provide some new ideas of contract supervision for military representative office.

关 键 词：航天装备合同 合同履行风险评价 分级监管 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：F426.5[经济管理—产业经济]