Opportunities beyond net-zero CO_(2)for cost-effective greenhouse gas mitigation in China  

碳中和下中国非二氧化碳温室气体减排的潜力、成本与气候效益

作　　者：Yating Kang Peipei Tian Kuishuang Feng Jiashuo Li Klaus Hubacek 康亚婷;田沛佩;冯奎双;李佳硕;Klaus Hubacek

机构地区：[1]Institute of Blue and Green Development,Shandong University,Weihai 264209,China [2]Department of Geographical Sciences,University of Maryland,College Park,MD 20742,USA [3]Integrated Research on Energy,Environment and Society(IREES),Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen(ESRIG),University of Groningen,Groningen,9747 AG,theNetherlands

出　　处：《Science Bulletin》2024年第21期3434-3443,共10页科学通报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3105304);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72303136);the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China(ZR2023QG002);Major grant in National Social Sciences of China(23VRC037,24VHQ018).

摘　　要：Achieving net-zero CO_(2)emissions is the current main focus of China’s carbon neutrality goal.However,non-CO_(2)greenhouse gases(GHGs)are more powerful climate forcers,making their emission reduction an opportunity to rapidly mitigate future warming.Here,we evaluate non-CO_(2)mitigation potentials,costs and climate benefits in the context of China’s carbon neutrality goals.The assessment is conducted by coupling the integrated assessment model GCAM with a climate emulator.The findings indicate that mitigation technologies can largely reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial sectors,but long-term non-CO_(2)reductions of energy sector activities rely heavily on fuel switching.Furthermore,the cumulative costs of deploying non-CO_(2)mitigation technologies are projected to be less than 10%of the total costs of achieving carbon neutrality from 2020 to 2060.If non-CO_(2)mitigation measures are included in the overall mitigation portfolio,the benefits of avoided warming would by far outweigh the total mitigation cost increase.Our results thus highlight that incorporating a wider suite of GHGs into climate change mitigation strategies can enhance the cost-effectiveness of mitigation efforts.

关 键 词：Non-CO_(2)greenhouse gas Emission trajectory Mitigation cost Climate benefit 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]