绿色财政政策是否促进了低碳发展——来自“节能减排财政政策综合示范城市”的证据  

Does Green Fiscal Policy Promote Low-Carbon Development——Evidence from the“Comprehensive Demonstration City of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Fiscal Policy”

作　　者：常向东 彭润泽 Chang Xiangdong;Peng Runze

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学财政与税务学院,兰州730020

出　　处：《公共财政研究》2024年第5期14-26,13,共14页Public Finance Research Journal

基　　金：甘肃省科技厅科技计划项目“甘肃省县域营商环境评估诊断与优化提升”(22JR4ZA063)阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：绿色财政政策是推动实现“双碳”目标、促进资源合理利用和可持续发展的重要方式。本文基于2006—2019年我国282个城市的面板数据,以“节能减排财政政策综合示范城市”这一准自然实验为研究对象,借助渐进双重差分法探究绿色财政政策的碳减排效应。实证结果表明:(1)示范城市建设能够降低城市碳排放,且这一结论通过了替换被解释变量、排除其他政策干扰等多项稳健性检验。(2)机制分析显示,示范城市建设通过优化产业结构转型升级、提升绿色创新水平及降低能源消耗三种渠道抑制城市碳减排。(3)异质性分析表明,示范城市建设的碳减排效应对西部城市更加明显,并且在时间上试点政策的实施效果存在一定的滞后性。文章为我国绿色财政政策体系构建和经济社会发展全面绿色转型提供一定的经验证据和政策启示。Green fiscal policy is an important way to promote the realization of the“dual carbon”goals,facilitate the rational use of resources and support sustainable development.Based on the panel data of 282 cities in China from 2006 to 2019,this paper takes the“Comprehensive Demonstration City of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Fiscal Policy”as the quasi-natural experiment,and uses the generalized difference-in-differences method to explore the carbon reduction effect of green fiscal policy.The empirical results show that:(1)The construction of demonstration cities can reduce urban carbon emissions,and this conclusion has passed multiple robustness tests such as replacing the explained variables and excluding other policy interferences.(2)Mechanism analysis shows that the construction of demonstration cities inhibits urban carbon reduction through three pathways:optimizing the transformation,upgrading of the industrial structure and improving green innovation levels and reducing energy consumption.(3)Heterogeneity analysis shows that the carbon reduction effect of the construction of demonstration cities is particularly pronounced in western cities,and there exists a temporal lag in the implementation effects of the pilot policy.This paper offers empirical evidence and policy insights for the development of China's future green fiscal system and the pursuit of low-carbon economic growth.

关 键 词：绿色财政政策 碳排放 渐进双重差分 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]