城市户籍人口规模增长预测及其对地区GDP的影响——以南京市为例  

Study on the Growth Prediction of Urban RegisteredPopulation and its Impact on Regional GDP--Through Taking Nanjing City as an Example

作　　者：周天彦 王应堃 刘宇健 Zhou Tianyan;Wang Yingkun;Liu Yujian(Sanjiang University,Nanjing 210012,China;College of Education,Xizang Minzu University,Lhasa 712099,China)

机构地区：[1]三江学院,南京210012 [2]西藏民族大学教育学院,拉萨712099

出　　处：《黑龙江科学》2024年第21期63-65,68,共4页Heilongjiang Science

摘　　要：以南京市为例,探讨城市户籍人口规模增长对地区生产总值的影响。采用线性回归模型、Holt’s线性趋势模型、ARIMA模型、Logistic增长模型、多元线性回归与BP神经网络等多种计量经济学方法预测南京市户籍人口增长趋势,分析其对经济发展的作用。研究结果表明,人口增长与GDP增长呈正相关性,人口增长对经济发展具有推动作用,多种模型的综合应用提升了预测结果的稳定性与准确性。考虑人口增长的质量与结构变化对经济的影响,强调人口特征在经济发展过程中的重要性,可以为城市规划与区域经济战略制定提供理论与实践参考。Through taking Nanjing as an example,the study discusses the impact of the growth of urban registered population on the GDP.The study conducts linear regression model,Holt’s linear trend model,ARIMA model,Logistic growth model,multiple linear regression and BP neural network,etc.;predicts the growth trend of Nanjing registered population;and analyzes its effect on economic development.The results of the analysis show that population growth is positively correlated with GDP growth,and population growth has a driving effect on economic development.The comprehensive application of various models improves the stability and accuracy of forecast results.Consideration of the impact of the quality and structure of population growth on the economy,and emphasis of the importance of population characteristics in the process of economic development can provide theoretical and practical reference for urban planning and regional economic strategy formulation.

关 键 词：城市户籍人口 地区生产总值 人口增长预测 多模型集成方法 南京市 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]