政府债务对信贷资源形成有效资本的影响——基于后凯恩斯主义视角  

The Impact of Government Debt on the Formation of Effective Capital from Credit Resources——A Post-Keynesian Perspective

作　　者：李昕达 邵学峰[1] 张逸男 Li Xinda;Shao Xuefeng;Zhang Yinan

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2024年第7期77-95,共19页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“数字经济下新业态企业税收管理问题研究”(20BJY224)。

摘　　要：本文基于后凯恩斯“有效需求决定产出”的基本思想,构建四部门存量流量一致模型,深入刻画政府债务在推动信贷资源形成有效资本过程中的关键作用,并结合经济“脱实向虚”问题探讨政府债务与投资拉动型经济增长模式的可持续性。以此为基础,利用2006—2015年205个地级市数据与沪深A股上市公司数据,使用门槛模型与联立方程模型进行实证检验。研究结果发现,企业贷款行为能否形成有效资本并实现对经济增长的拉动作用,取决于政府债务在降低居民储蓄“漏损效应”中能否发挥关键作用。然而,当经济存在“脱实向虚”问题时,政府债务的可持续性将面临严重威胁。本文突破了既有研究以新古典经济学为基础,探讨政府债务对企业投融资挤出问题的局限,从“内生货币”视角出发,论证了政府债务“填补作用”的新理论机制,为中国遏制经济“脱实向虚”与适当增发国债提供了理论支撑,并为如何有效化解政府债务风险提供了新的政策思路。This paper,based on the fundamental post-Keynesian thought that“effective demand determines output,”constructs a four-sector Stock-Flow Consistent model to deeply portray the crucial role of government debt in the process of converting credit resources into effective capital.It also explores the sustainability of government debt within an investment-driven economic growth model,in conjunction with the issue of the economy shifting from the real sector to the financial sector.Using data from 205 prefecture-level cities and Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2006 to 2015,the paper empirically tests this framework using a threshold model and a simultaneous equations model.The research finds that whether corporate loans can form effective capital and drive economic growth depends on the key role of government debt in mitigating the“leakage effect”of household savings.However,when the economy exhibits signs of“shifting from the real to the financial sector,”the sustainability of government debt faces severe challenges.This paper breaks through the limitations of existing research,which is primarily based on neoclassical economics and focuses on the crowdingout effect of government debt on corporate investment and financing.From the perspective of“endogenous money,”it demonstrates a new theoretical mechanism of the“filling effect”of government debt.The paper provides theoretical support for China in curbing the shift from the real to the financial sector and appropriately increasing government bond issuance,while also offering new policy insights on how to effectively mitigate government debt risks.

关 键 词：后凯恩斯主义 政府债务 企业杠杆率 资本形成率 

分 类 号：F810[经济管理—财政学]