经济长波视角下的“百年变局”  

“Changes Unseen in a Century”from the Economic Long-wave Perspective

作　　者：黄文义 胡乐明[3] Huang Wenyi;Hu Leming

机构地区：[1]三明学院经济与管理学院,福建三明365001 [2]中国社会科学院经济研究所,北京100836 [3]中国社会科学院大学经济学院,北京102488

出　　处：《当代经济研究》2024年第11期41-49,F0003,共10页Contemporary Economic Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD129)。

摘　　要：经济长波理论为我们理解“百年变局”提供了新视角:经济长波是工业革命展开过程的外在表现,每次工业革命对应两个康德拉季耶夫长波,时间跨幅为一百年左右。当前全球经济正处于第三次工业革命的协同期和第六次康德拉季耶夫长波的下降波,世界经济在能源技术范式、制度组织范式以及全球经济格局等方面发生了深刻变化,呈现出百年未有的大变局。面对“百年变局”带来的机遇和挑战,中国的应对方案包括:着力实施创新驱动发展战略、推进国家治理能力和治理体系现代化、推动形成全面开放新格局,以及积极参与全球治理等。The economic long-wave theory provides a new perspective for us to understand the"changes unseen in a century":the economic long wave is the external manifestation of the industrial revolution development process,and each industrial revolution corresponds to two Kondratiev long waves across about 100 years.At present,the global economy is in the synergistic period of the third industrial revolution and the downward wave of the sixth Kondratiev long wave,and the worid economy has undergone profound changes in the energy technology paradigm,institutional organization paradigm and global economic pattern,showing changes unseen in a century.In the face of the opportunities and challenges brought about by the"changes unseen in a century",Chinese solution includes:focusing on implementing the innovation-driven development strategy,improving the modernization of national governance capacity and governance system,promoting the formation of a new pattern of comprehensive opening up,actively participating in global governance,etc.

关 键 词：经济长波理论 百年变局 经济技术范式 中国方案 

分 类 号：F037.1[经济管理—政治经济学]