绿色低碳转型:政策路径、影响机制和趋势分析  

Green Low-Carbon Transition:Policy Pathways,Impact Mechanisms,and Trend Analysis

作　　者：李康 苏乃芳 李宏瑾[3] LI Kang;SU Naifang;LI Hongjin(Beijing Municipal Branch,The People's Bank of China,Beijing 100045,China;Research Institute of The People's Bank of China,Beijing 100032,China;Research Bureau,The People's Bank of China,Beijing 100032,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行北京市分行 [2]中国人民银行金融研究所 [3]中国人民银行研究局

出　　处：《金融评论》2024年第5期13-34,147,共23页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点课题项目《结构性货币政策的理论与评估》(项目批准号:72133006);国家社会科学基金重大项目《罕见灾难冲击、宏观经济下行与宏观经济政策调控研究》(项目批准号:20&ZD055)的资助。

摘　　要：在碳达峰碳中和目标约束下,研究绿色低碳转型相关政策的作用机制及经济影响对我国宏观调控政策与气候政策的有效实施具有重要意义。本文构建包含碳定价、绿色补贴、绿色低碳技术三方面转型政策因素的DSGE模型,刻画分析相关因素对经济增长的影响机制与具体效应。研究表明:碳价提升促进减排,但将降低棕色企业的资本收益率,抑制其投融资与产出,阻碍经济增长;实施绿色补贴和推动绿色企业生产技术进步可以提升绿色企业的资本收益率,促进绿色投融资与绿色产出,增加绿色增长动能;推动棕色企业减排技术进步能够降低减排成本,缓解碳价冲击,减少经济损失。综合模拟显示,在减排目标约束下,转型将对我国未来经济增长造成一定压力,尤其是在临近碳中和的阶段,但具体影响程度具有较高的不确定性,与绿色补贴力度、相关技术进步速率等因素的实现路径有关。为统筹推进减排与增长的协同,应实施有力有效的绿色补贴和绿色低碳技术支持政策,并需把握不同阶段的政策重点与支持政策的协调推进。Achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals requires a comprehensive understanding of the policy mechanisms and economic impacts of the green low-carbon transition.This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that incorporates three key policy factorscarbon pricing,green subsidies,and green low-carbon technologiesto analyze their effects on economic growth.The findings show that while higher carbon prices drive emissions reductions,they reduce the capital returns of brown enterprises,leading to decreased investment,financing,and output,which in turn constrains economic growth.Conversely,green subsidies and advancements in green technologies enhance the capital returns of green enterprises,encouraging investment and fueling green growth.Additionally,promoting emissionsreduction technologies for brown enterprises can lower abatement costs,mitigating the negative effects of carbon pricing and reducing economic losses.Comprehensive simulations indicate that the transition,under emission reduction constraints,will impose pressure on China's economic growth,particularly as the carbon neutrality phase approaches.However,the extent of this impact remains uncertain,depending on factors such as the intensity of green subsidies and the pace of technological progress.To balance emission reduction with economic growth,effective policies that support green subsidies and technological innovation are essential,alongside careful coordination of priorities at different stages of the transition.

关 键 词：绿色低碳转型 经济增长 绿色低碳技术 绿色补贴 碳定价 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]