中国劳动收入份额的演变趋势及基于制造业的驱动力探索  

The Evolution of Chinese Labor Share and Drivers based on Manufacturing

作　　者：尹恒[1] 张道远 李辉[3] YIN Heng;ZHANG Dao;YuanLI Hui(National Academy of Development and Strategy,Renmin University of China;Institute of Finance,Shandong Academy of Social Sciences;Economics and Management School,Wuhan University)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院,北京100872 [2]山东社会科学院财政金融研究所,山东济南250002 [3]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《金融研究》2024年第7期152-169,共18页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72173131)的资助。

摘　　要：劳动收入份额是决定国民收入分配格局的基础。本文使用覆盖1998—2016年的大样本微观数据,描述这一时期企业劳动收入份额演变趋势,并构建结构估计模型、运用多种分解方法探索其主要驱动力。结论如下:第一,1998—2016年中国企业劳动收入份额呈现明显的U形趋势,2007年为其低谷。特别地,国际金融危机后全行业劳动收入份额一致上升,2016年比2007年增长近四成。第二,持续经营企业是样本期内制造业劳动收入份额演变的主体,其对制造业总体劳动收入份额变化的贡献超过80%。第三,2007年后持续经营企业人均销售增速相对于人均工资增速明显放缓,是样本期内劳动收入份额U形逆转的关键驱动因素。第四,技术进步或劳动市场制度变化等因素,很可能是2007年后劳动收入份额下滑趋势逆转的主要驱动力。本文认为,对近年来劳动收入份额的改善不应过于乐观,应该继续强化改善中国要素分配格局和收入分配状况的各项政策措施。Labor share refers to the proportion of compensation received by workers in newly created value within a country or region during a specific period.This indicator reflects the distribution of national income between workers and capital owners,and is crucial for understanding income distribution patterns and promoting sustainable economic development.For a long time,the labor share in many countries has remained relatively stable,a phenomenon that Kaldor included as one of the"stylized facts"of economic growth.However,doubts about the stability of labor share have persisted.In recent years,the global trend of declining labor share has atracted widespread attention and discussion in academic circles.As the world's second-largest economy;changes in China's labor share have significant implications for the global economic landscape.Although existing research has extensively examined China's labor share from a macroeconomic perspective,the calculation of labor share at the macro level is highly sensitive to the accounting scope of labor compensation.Moreover,macro-level analyses often rely on simplified micro-environment settings,sacrificing the rich information contained in micro-heterogeneity,resulting in an"incomplete explanation"of labor share changes and their influencing factors.In light of this,this paper attempts to examine the evolution of China's labor share and its driving factors from a micro perspective to address the limitations of existing research.We combine the China Industrial Firm Database and the National Tax Survey Database to construct a large-sample firm dataset with broad coverage and a long time-span.Based on this dataset,we describe the trends in China's labor share from 1998 to 2016,employ various decomposition methods to identify the underlying driving forces,and quantify the impact of various factors through a structural estimation model.Our findings are as follows:First,China's labor share exhibited a distinct U-shaped trend between 1998 and 2016,with 2007 as the lowest point.Notably,the

关 键 词：劳动收入份额 企业异质性 有偏技术进步 结构估计 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] F424[经济管理—国民经济]