基于生命周期理论的个人养老筹资评估与规划  

Assessment and Planning of Personal Retirement Financing Based on Life Cycle Theory

作　　者：王梦真 李文军[2,3] WANG Mengzhen;LI Wenjun(Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Institute of Quantitative&Technological Economics,CASS;School of Business,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,北京100836 [2]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732 [3]中国社会科学院大学商学院,北京102488

出　　处：《金融研究》2024年第7期170-187,共18页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：中国社会科学院经济大数据与政策评估实验室(2024SYZH004);中国社会科学院创新工程基础研究学者资助项目(IQTE2020—2024)的资助。

摘　　要：养老、医疗资金的筹措和规划是微观个体应对预期寿命延长的普遍需求,这一规划应充分体现个体差异和主观预期,除财富资本配置外,还需对包含健康资本、人力资本的各项资本进行积极配置。本文从养老筹资的视角,系统地审视个体老年阶段的财务情况,以消费-储蓄理论和生命周期模型为基础,将老年阶段根据劳动与健康状态进一步细分,构建了基于预期的养老筹资评估模型。通过对预期期末资产的测算,将老年阶段的资金需求及资金消耗、老年人开展劳动及健康行为带来的财富创造融入统一的分析体系。测算指出,我国超过六成老年人有发生期末资产耗竭的风险。最后,本文对个人开展各项养老筹资行为的实施效果进行测算,为老年人及其家庭提出规划调整方案,从而有效应对长寿风险。With the extension of individual life expectancy,the financing of retirement and medical funds becomes a popular need for individuals to address the longevity risk.This planning of personal retirement financing should fully reflect individual differences and subjective expectations.In addition to the allocation of wealth capital,it is also necessary to actively allocate various capitals including health capital and human capital.This paper systematically examines the financial situation of individuals in their old age from the perspective of retirement financing,based on the consumption-saving theory and the life-cycle model.It further subdivides stages of old age according to working and health status,and constructs a pension financing assessment model.By measuring the expected terminal assets,it integrates the funding needs and expenditure for elderly care and health,as well as the wealth creation from labor and health behaviors,into a unified analytical system.The calculation indicates that more than 60%of the elderly in China are at risk of depleting their assets.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the terminal assets of rural,low-educated,female,non-married,and disabled groups are lower.Finally,this paper uses the logical principle of information-prediction-behavior to calculate the specific effects of adjusting various financing planning behaviors according to expectations,and discusses the sufficiency of financing for the elderly from a more general level,proposing practical planning adjustment plans for the elderly and their families to effectively cope with the risk of longevity.

关 键 词：养老筹资 生命周期理论 财务规划 劳动资本 健康资本 

分 类 号：D669.6[政治法律—政治学] F832[政治法律—中外政治制度]