外部货币冲击与金融稳定——基于近代白银法案的经验研究  

External Monetary Shocks and Financial Stability:An Empirical Evidence from the Silver Act

作　　者：李嘉楠[1] 陈立 周颖刚[1] LI Jianan;CHEN Li;ZHOU Yinggang(School of Economics/Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics,Xiamen University)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院/王亚南经济研究院,福建厦门361000

出　　处：《金融研究》2024年第7期188-206,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(721731102);国家社科基金重大项目(19ZDA060);国家自然科学基金科学中心项目(71988101)的资助。

摘　　要：由于信用本位体系下央行货币政策高度内生,很难厘清外部货币冲击对金融稳定的因果效应。近代中国中央银行的缺位,为我们识别外部货币冲击对金融稳定的影响提供了独特的历史环境。基于手动收集的近代中国价格、银行、海关和企业数据,本文利用1934年美国《白银法案》对中国产生的银根紧缩外生冲击,构建双重差分模型,识别其对金融稳定的影响。研究发现,白银外流造成了中国通货紧缩与流动性危机,为弗里德曼的“白银外流导致通缩”观点和萨金特的“国际套利导致价格下降”观点的争论提供了经验证据;白银外流造成金融信贷投放规模下降,并导致新增企业数量减少和房地产建筑面积萎缩。最后,我们的结果表明“自由银行”体系在外部货币冲击下难以及时释放流动性,很难帮助中小银行摆脱流动性困境。本文梳理的历史经验证据表明,保持国家独立自主的货币政策,是发展中国家在外部货币冲击下保持金融稳定的重要基础。At present,the monetary policy cycle of major developed countries in Europe and the United States is frequently changed,which constitutes an external currency shock on the emerging economies with limited room for policy maneuver.The negative impact of external monetary shocks on domestic financial stability has attracted increasing attention,although the academic community has theoretically discussed the spillover effect of central countries'monetary policies on other economies and the significance of developing countries'proactive policies to offset external shocks and maintain financial stability.However,due to the endogeneity of money supply under the credit standard,it is difficult to accurately answer this question from the angle of causal identification.Nevertheless,China in the 1930s provided us with a rare opportunity to observe and answer this question at the institutional level.By collecting the information on customs imports,city prices,bank finance and so on in modern China,this paper studies the causal effect of external monetary shock on financial stability by using the impact of the US Silver Act of 1934,and analyzes the role of China's free banking system in coping with the crisis.In the early 1930s,China was the only major country in the world that used the silver standard system,and its silver stock and total money supply were controlled by the balance of payments and the international silver price.At the same time,China had no substantive central bank,forming a banking system that resembled a"free banking system."As the previous silver price downturn hurt the interests of the seven silver producing states in the United States,under the promotion of these silver interest groups,the Roosevelt government promulgated the Silver Act in June 1934,authorizing the Treasury Department to buy silver from the international market at a high price,resulting in an increase of 70 percent in the international silver price in less than a year.The Silver Act had a significant impact on China under the silver sta

关 键 词：外部货币冲击 金融稳定 白银法案 

分 类 号：F821.9[经济管理—财政学] F831.9[历史地理—历史学] K26[历史地理—中国史]