生产网络视角下的中国经济周期  

Production Networks and Business Cycles in China

作　　者：黄益平[1,2] 徐诗语 余昌华 杜浩锋 伍晓鹰 HUANG Yiping;XU Shiyu;YU Changhua;DU Haofeng;Harry Xiaoying WU(National School of Development,Peking University;China Center for Economic Research,Peking University;Institute of New Structural Economics,Peking University;Growth Lab in National School of Development,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]北京大学国家发展研究院,100871 [2]北京大学中国经济研究中心,100871 [3]北京大学新结构经济学研究院,100871 [4]北京大学国家发展研究院增长实验室,100871

出　　处：《经济研究》2024年第9期42-61,共20页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项项目(2023J2DZ017);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72173007)的资助。

摘　　要：经济周期常被视为总量现象,然而在中国经济结构快速转型的背景下,它还受到各个部门周期性变化以及经济网络结构演变的影响。基于生产网络视角,本文分析了中国经济周期的成因。首先,构建理论模型讨论生产网络的结构特征和转型过程对行业冲击与经济波动之间关系的影响。接着,利用带有异质性约束的贝叶斯结构向量自回归模型,基于中国行业生产率数据库(CIP/China KLEMS),实证识别1978—2018年中国经济周期的源头行业。研究发现:第一,少数主导行业通过投入产出联系驱动了大部分经济波动,且不同时期的主导行业有所变化。第二,资本密集型行业在生产网络中的投入产出联系不断强化,逐步替代劳动密集型行业成为经济周期的主导。第三,建筑和房地产部门作为生产网络中的关键节点,其自身冲击在各行业间广泛传导,同时上下游行业的冲击通过该部门被放大,二者共同塑造了建筑和房地产部门在经济周期中的重要地位。本文揭示了中国经济周期的结构性特征,对于理解宏观经济与产业结构的关系、保持经济稳定增长具有重要的学术与政策价值。In classical economic theories,business cycles are often reflected by changes in aggregate indicators such as investment,consumption,and exports,which are typically interpreted as the result of aggregate shocks.However,in China,where the economic structure is undergoing rapid transformation,business cycles are not merely aggregate phenomena.They also reflect underlying cycles across different economic sectors and the dynamic evolution of the production network structure.This paper examines how production networks shape China’s business cycles,offering a structural interpretation of these fluctuations.Since the launch of reform and opening up in 1978,China’s production network has exhibited significant changes.On the one hand,inter-sectoral input-output linkages have deepened.On the other hand,the relative importance of sectors within the network has evolved heterogeneously.These rapid structural shifts suggest an increasingly tightened connection between China’s economic fluctuations and the structure of its production network.Theoretically,we develop a multi-sector real business cycle model with input-output structure,and study the impact and mechanism of sector-specific shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations.Based on the theoretical framework,we derive sufficient statistics for the macroeconomic impact of sectoral shocks.The results indicate that a sectoral shock has a larger impact if the sector has a higher value-added share,has closer input-output linkages with other high-value-added sectors,or experiences larger shocks.We then examine how various shocks affect the macroeconomy through specific network nodes,and decompose the mechanisms into two channels.The first is the“direct effect”,where shocks originating within the node sector generate both within-sector and between-sector effects via input-output linkages.The second is the“indirect effect”,where upstream and downstream sectoral shocks transmit through the network to the node sector.Thus,sectors with strong input-output linkages are identif

关 键 词：经济波动 行业冲击 生产网络 异质性约束 贝叶斯结构向量自回归 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济]