基于博弈论-模糊贝叶斯网络的低温风洞风险评估研究  

Research on risk assessment of cryogenic wind tunnel based on game theory and fuzzy Bayesian network

作　　者：姚志强 任永博[1] 邓斌 韩烨[4] 高进东[1,2] 谭波 YAO Zhiqiang;REN Yongbo;DENG Bin;HAN Ye;GAO Jindong;TAN Bo(School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China;High Speed Aerodynamics Institute of CARDC,Mianyang Sichuan 621000,China;Beijing China-Power Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102200,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)应急管理与安全工程学院,北京100083 [2]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012 [3]中国空气动力研究与发展中心高速所,四川绵阳621000 [4]北京中电普华信息技术有限公司,北京102200

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第11期177-183,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

摘　　要：为对低温风洞可能存在的风险进行识别和评估,本文基于贝叶斯网络方法,首先对低温风洞风险因素进行识别,得出可能导致低温风洞事故的风险因素,依据三角模糊数和博弈论的方法计算各因素发生模糊概率,以此来构建低温风洞风险因素贝叶斯网络模型。通过该贝叶斯网络模型的正向推理和逆向推理对各风险因素进行因果推理和风险诊断,并将其应用到某低温风洞系统。研究结果表明:B_(2)(冻伤、窒息)、B_(3)(机械伤害)、B_(5)(触电)发生概率相对较大,应加大对应风险因素的预防工作;C_(18)(违章作业)、C_(9)(人员误操作)、C_(2)(设备设计缺陷)、C_(1)(设备部件损坏、老化)在低温风洞后验概率排序表中排序较为靠前,在风险事故发生时应该重点进行排查,并采取有效的风险管控措施。研究结果可为低温风洞风险评估及安全决策和方案优化提供一定的参考。To identify and assess the potential risk of cryogenic wind tunnels,the risk factors of cryogenic wind tunnel were identified based on the Bayesian network method,and the risk factors that could potentially lead to the accidents of cryogenic wind tunnel were obtained.The occurrence fuzzy probabilities of each factor were calculated by using the triangular fuzzy number and game theory,and a Bayesian network model for the risk factors of cryogenic wind tunnel was constructed.The causal reasoning and risk diagnosis were conducted on each risk factor through the forward and reverse reasoning of the Bayesian network model,and it was applied to a cryogenic wind tunnel system.The results show that the probabilities of B_(2)(frostbite and asphyxia),B_(3)(mechanical injury),and B_(5)(electric shock)are relatively high,and the prevention efforts for these risk factors should be intensified.Furthermore,in the posterior probability ranking table of cryogenic wind tunnel,C_(18)(illegal operation),C_(9)(personnel misoperation),C_(2)(equipment design defects),and C_(1)(equipment part damage and aging)is high-ranking.When the risk accident occurs,it should focus on investigation and take effective risk control measures.The research results can provide some reference for risk assessment,safety decision-making and scheme optimization of cryogenic wind tunnels.

关 键 词：低温风洞 贝叶斯网络 风险评估 博弈论 三角模糊数 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]