新基建投资驱动居民消费的理论逻辑与实证检验——兼论现行财政分权体制的影响  

Theoretical Logic and Empirical Testing of New Infrastructure Investment Driving Resident Consumption--On the Impact of the Current Fiscal Decentralization System

作　　者：孙世强 吕平章 SUN Shi-qiang;LV Ping-zhang(School of Economics,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院,沈阳110036

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第6期144-150,共7页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学基金重大项目“深化重点领域改革,推进体制机制建设研究”(L23ZD046);教育部人文社会科学重大项目“中国式现代化道路中的国有资本功能定位与作用担当研究”(22JJD790026)。

摘　　要：通过创新性提出新基建投资-消费理论模型,结合家庭、厂商、研发、就业和政府等五个部门分析新基建投资对居民消费的影响,并利用2003-2021年中国省级面板数据进行实证检验。实证结果表明,新基建投资对居民消费水平及消费结构升级具有正向作用,在此过程中,个人收入、社会投资、技术创新和就业结构发挥着机制作用。其中,新基建投资挤入社会投资最为明显。进一步分析发现,财政分权体制约束下,地方财政收入结构能够显著影响新基建投资的消费效应。依靠中央转移支付投资有利于稳固该消费效应,而盲目拓展非税收入则削弱该消费效应,甚至产生负面效果。This study innovatively proposes a theoretical model linking new infrastructure investment to consumption,analyzing the impact of such investment on resident consumption through five sectors:households,firms,research and development,employment,and government.Empirical testing is conducted using provincial panel data from China covering the yeara 2003 to 2021.The empirical results indicate that new infrastructure investment has a positive effect on both the level of resident consumption and the upgrading of consumption structure.In this process,personal income,social investment,technological innovation,and employment structure play significant roles.Notably,new infrastructure investment crowds in social investment.Further analysis reveals that under the constraints of the fiscal decentralization system,the structure of local fiscal revenue can significantly influence the consumption effects of new infrastructure investment.Relying on central transfer payments for investment is beneficial for stabilizing this consumption effect,while blindly expanding non-tax revenues weakens the consumption effect and may even produce negative consequences.

关 键 词：新基建投资 居民消费 财政分权 中央转移支付 非税收入 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济] F126.1