灵活追随:东南亚国家战略文化及其对地区秩序的影响  

Flexible Bandwagoning: The Strategic Culture of Southeast Asian States and Its Im-pacts on Regional Order

作　　者：查雯 ZHA Wen(Institute of International Relations,China Foreign Affairs University,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]外交学院国际关系研究所

出　　处：《东南亚研究》2024年第5期1-22,154,共23页Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助“中国经济实力上升背景下的政治影响力提升研究”(3162022ZK01)。

摘　　要：东南亚国家普遍存在着灵活追随的战略文化。这一战略文化包含以下三个关于武力使用的基本假设:第一,东南亚国家不具备独立作战的能力,国家间战争应予避免;第二,国家面临的主要安全威胁来自于国家内部,是非军事的;第三,军事力量在实现国家安全目标方面的效用有限。在操作层面,东南亚国家的战略偏好体现出灵活追随的特点,获取大国援助和实现战略自主是两个同时被渴求但又相互矛盾的目标,保持灵活性则是东南亚战略精英调和这一矛盾的主要手段。灵活追随的战略文化对东南亚国家的战略行为产生了深刻影响,同时也在这些国家的战略行为中得到不断建构。这一战略文化进而影响了东南亚国家对于地区秩序的偏好,东南亚国家更易于接受多元、动态的霸权秩序。在中美战略竞争升级的背景下,东南亚国家对大国的灵活追随也将导致东盟中心地位的下降。Southeast Asian states generally exhibit a strategic culture characterized by flexible bandwagoning.This strategic culture encompasses the following three fundamental assump-tions regarding the use of force:First,Southeast Asian states lack the capability for independ-ent military operations and thus should avoid interstate wars.Second,the primary security threats faced by these states are non-military and originate from within the state.Third,the ef-fectiveness of military force in achieving national security objectives is limited.At the opera-tional level,the strategic preferences of Southeast Asian states reflect the characteristics of flexi-ble bandwagoning.The two simultaneous but seemingly contradictory goals of seeking assis-tance from major powers and achieving strategic autonomy are both pursued.Flexibility is the key means by which Southeast Asian strategic elites manage this contradiction.The strategic culture of flexible bandwagoning has a profound impact on the strategic behaviour of South-east Asian states,while also being continuously constructed within their strategic practices.This strategic culture further influences Southeast Asian states'preferences for regional order,making them more inclined to accept a multi-centred and dynamic hegemonic order.In the context of escalating strategic competition between China and the US,Southeast Asian states'flexible bandwagoning towards major powers is likely to lead to the decline of ASEAN cen-trality.

关 键 词：战略文化 灵活追随 东南亚国家 地区秩序 中美战略竞争 

分 类 号：D733[政治法律—政治学]