丹寨县龙泉山景区杜鹃始花期预报分析  

Prediction and Analysis of the Initial Flowering Period of Rhododendron in Longquan Mountain Scenic Area of Danzhai County

作　　者：皮义均 盛升旺 潘虹旭 彭合梅 马洪燕 Pi Yijun;Sheng Shengwang;Pan Hongxu;Peng Hemei;Ma Hongyan(Danzhai County Meteorological Bureau,Danzhai 557500,Guizhou,China;Cengong County Meteorological Bureau,Cengong 557800,Guizhou,China)

机构地区：[1]丹寨县气象局,贵州丹寨557500 [2]岑巩县气象局,贵州岑巩557800

出　　处：《山地农业生物学报》2024年第6期60-64,共5页Journal of Mountain Agriculture and Biology

基　　金：贵州省气象局科研业务项目(黔气科登[2023]10-08)。

摘　　要：为满足丹寨县龙泉山景区杜鹃始花期的预报需求,对龙泉山区域自动站2013—2023年的气温、湿度、降水量等气象数据以及始花期数据进行统计分析,探讨了杜鹃始花期预测方法、预测模型的建立及应用。结果表明:最早和最晚始花期时间相隔6 d,始花期有推迟的趋势;始花期受气温、温湿比的影响,且与其呈显著相关性(P<0.05)。以3月下旬平均最低气温为关键气象因子,建立杜鹃始花期预报模型,该模型预测误差为1~3 d,模型预测效果较好。To address the prediction demands concerning the commencement of Rhododendron flowering in the Longquan Mountain Scenic Area of Danzhai County,statistical analyses were carried out on temperature,humidity,and precipitation data obtained from the regional automatic weather station from 2013 to 2023,as long with the corresponding records of the initial flowering dates of Rhododendrons.The study revealed a 6-day variance between the earliest and latest flowering periods of Rhododendrons,revealing a trend towards delayed flowering.The initiation of flowering demonstrated a significant association with both temperature and the temperature humidity ratio(P<0.05).By utilizing the average minimum temperature in late March as the primary meteorological factor,a prediction model for the flowering period of Rhododendron was construccted.The model exhibited a prediction error of 1 to 3 days,demonstrating strong performance.

关 键 词：杜鹃 始花期 预报模型 丹寨县 

分 类 号：S165[农业科学—农业气象学]