当前东北亚地缘政治变局中的日本因素  

The Japanese Factor in the Current Geopolitical Changes in Northeast Asia

作　　者：李冰[1,2] Li Bing

机构地区：[1]天津社会科学院东北亚研究所 [2]《东北亚学刊》编辑部,天津300191

出　　处：《日本研究》2024年第2期60-75,共16页Japan Studies

摘　　要：当前国际局势变乱交织,既有国际秩序的约束力正在降低,新的国际规则和秩序体系尚未形成。受此影响,东北亚地缘政治变局体现在域外势力介入与内外乱局搅动相互交织、相互作用,具有长期性、复杂性、残酷性的特点。日本作为东北亚重要国家,倚靠美西方势力增大自身威慑、争当战略支点,借助俄乌冲突、朝核问题、台湾问题搅动,突破战后制裁、争取战争主动、制衡大国博弈,通过构筑强国战略,试图成为地区领导者和国际秩序建构者,同时极力排斥发展中国家的多边主义诉求。日本地缘政治战略源于长久以来逐渐固化的错误的世界观、历史观和国家发展理念,加之受美国保守政治管控和引导,所以其保守政治右倾化趋势仍将持续,且目标明确、路径清晰、理念成熟、体系完备。可以预见,日本战略逻辑和行事风格不会发生根本改变,但会根据全球及地区形势做出调整,有些行为可能具有迷惑性,须提高警惕。The current international situation is characterized by intertwining turbulence,with the binding force of the established international order being reduced and a new system of international rules and order yet to be formed.As a result,the geopolitical situation in Northeast Asia is characterized by the intertwining and interaction between the involvement of external powers and the internal and external chaos,and is characterized by its long-term,complex and brutal nature.Japan,as an important country in Northeast Asia,relies on the U.S.and Western forces to increase its deterrence and strive to become a strategic fulcrum,by leveraging the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the North Korean nuclear issue and the Taiwan question,break through the post-war constraints,fight for the initiative of war,check and balance the game of great powers,and try to become a leader in the region and the shaper of international order by constructing a strong national strategy,while at the same time trying to exclude the developing countries from the demand for multilateralism.Japan's geopolical strategy stems from the wrong worldview,history and national development concepts that have been gradually solidified over a long period of time,coupled with the conservative political control and guidance by the United States,so the trend of its conservative political rightward trend will continue,and the goal is clear,the path is clear,the concept is mature,and the system is complete.It is foreseeable that Japan's strategic logic and acting style wll not change fundamentally,but it will make adjustments according to the global and regional situation,and some of its behaviors may be confusing and require vigilance.

关 键 词：东北亚地缘政治 日本区域战略 地区威慑 强国战略 排斥多边主义 

分 类 号：D73[政治法律—政治学] D77[政治法律—中外政治制度]