基于面板数据的粮食产量影响因素实证分析  

Empirical analysis of the influencing factors of grain yield based on panel data

作　　者：刘亚琳 李晓东[2] LIU Yalin;LI Xiaodong(School of Management,Anhui Science and Technology University,Bengbu 233000,China;School of Humanities,Anhui Science and Technology University,Chuzhou 231000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽科技学院管理学院,安徽蚌埠233000 [2]安徽科技学院人文学院,安徽滁州231000

出　　处：《安徽农学通报》2024年第22期141-144,共4页Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：安徽省社科规划项目“新时代乡村振兴与互联网经济体的战略耦合及实现路径研究”(AHSKY2020D65)。

摘　　要：本研究选取A省1993—2022年的粮食作物播种面积(X1)、农业机械总动力(X2)、有效灌溉面积(X3)、农用化肥施用折纯量(X4)和成灾面积(X5)作为解释变量,粮食产量(Y)作为被解释变量,利用多元线性回归方程进行实证研究。结果表明,粮食产量及其影响因素的相关公式为lnY=-4.298+0.903 lnX1+0.565 lnX3-0.034lnX5+μ,影响粮食产量的主要因素包括粮食作物播种面积(X1)、有效灌溉面积(X3)与成灾面积(X5),影响程度分别为90.3%、56.5%和-3.4%。基于此,提出提高粮食产量的对策建议,包括保证耕地面积,建设高标准农田;扩大有效灌溉面积,提升水分利用效率;提高灾害预警能力,降低粮食生产成灾面积等。为提升研究区粮食产量提供参考。The grain sowing area(X1),total power of agricultural machinery(X2),effective irrigation area(X3),net amount of agricultural fertilizer application(X4)and disaster prone area(X5)in A Province from 1993 to 2022 were selected as explanatory variables,and conducted empirical research using a multiple linear regression equation with the dependent variable of grain yield(Y)utilization.The results indicated that the relevant formulas for grain yield and its influencing factors in the study area were as follows:lnY=-4.298+0.903 lnX1+0.565 lnX3-0.034lnX5+μ,the main factors affecting grain yield include grain sowing area(X1),effective irrigation area(X3),and disaster prone area(X5),with impact degrees of 90.3%,56.5%,and-3.4%,respectively.Based on this,countermeasures and suggestions were proposed for improving grain production,including ensure arable land area,construct high standard farmland,expand effective irrigation area,improve water use efficiency,enhance disaster warning capability,and reduce the area of grain production affected by disasters.Provided references for enhancing grain production in the research area.

关 键 词：粮食产量 粮食安全 EVIEWS软件 面板数据 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]