呼和浩特市环境温度与循环系统疾病死亡风险和负担的相关性研究  

Correlation between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden of circulatory diseases in Hohhot

作　　者：李欢 杨升美 岳宣志 武多多 张雯宇 贾芯芮 魏娜娜[1] 亢伟伟 范耀春[1,4,5] LI Huan;YANG Shengmei;YUE Xuanzhi;WU Duoduo;ZHANG Wenyu;JIA Xinrui;WEI Nana;KANG Weiwei;FAN Yaochun(Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention(Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Academy of Preventive Medicine),Hohhot 010070,China;Baotou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Baotou 014010,China;Inner Mongolia Medical University,Hohhot 010107,China;Inner Mongolia Engineneering and Technical Research Center for Personalized Medicine,Tongliao 028000,China;Ulanqab Central Hospital,Ulanqab 011800,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区疾病预防控制中心(内蒙古自治区预防医学科学院),呼和浩特010070 [2]包头市疾病预防控制中心,包头0140103 [3]乌兰察布市中心医院,呼和浩特010059 [4]内蒙古医科大学,通辽028000 [5]内蒙古自治区个体化用药工程技术研究中心,乌兰察布011800

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2024年第10期1176-1183,共8页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：2022年度内蒙古自治区卫生健康科技计划项目(202201156);内蒙古自然科学基金(2024MS03039);内蒙古自然基金(2024QN08087)。

摘　　要：目的探究2014―2022年呼和浩特市极端温度天气对当地居民循环系统疾病死亡风险的影响,并计算归因风险,为气候环境卫生资源的合理配置提供依据。方法采用描述性分析方法,对呼和浩特市连续9年循环系统疾病死亡资料(50032人)与气象资料进行统计描述,并逐年分析居民死亡率的整体特征与变化趋势。利用分布滞后非线性模型定量分析极端气温与循环系统疾病死亡人群的暴露-滞后-反应关系,并进一步根据性别、年龄分层分析。结果循环系统疾病日死亡人数与日均气温之间呈负相关,表明气温越低,死亡人数越多,极端低温对循环系统疾病的死亡影响相对快速且持续时间较长。暴露-滞后-反应关系显示极端气温每变化1℃,总人群及男性、女性、<65岁、≥65岁人群循环系统疾病均在lag 3 d出现最大冷效应,其RR值分别为1.027、1.026、1.033、1.022、1.045;热效应在分别在lag 7 d、lag 5 d对总人群和≥65岁居民有显著影响,RR值分别为1.040、1.045。冷效应与热效应在累积lag 21 d对总人群循环系统疾病的影响差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05),RR值分别为1.131、1.145。研究期间总人群循环系统疾病极端气温死因特异性死亡率为5.87%,分层分析发现≥65岁人群特异性死亡率较高。结论极端温度天气可增加当地居民循环系统疾病死亡风险,且对≥65岁人群影响更大。呼和浩特市居民循环系统疾病对冷效应反应更加敏感。Objective To investigate the impact of extreme temperature weather on the risk of cardiovascular disease-related mortality among local residents in Hohhot City from 2014 to 2022,calculate the attributable risk,and provide a basis for the rational allocation of climate environmental health resources.Methods Using descriptive analysis methods,statistically describe and analyze the data of cardiovascular disease-related deaths(50032 people)over 9 consecutive years in Hohhot City,along with meteorological data,and analyze the overall characteristics and trends of the residents′mortality rates year by year.Quantitatively analyze the exposure-lag-response relationship between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular disease mortality using a distributed lag non-linear model,and further stratify the analysis by gender and age.Results There was a negative correlation between the number of daily deaths from circulatory diseases and the average daily temperature,indicating that the lower the temperature,the higher the number of deaths.Extreme low temperatures had a relatively rapid and longer-lasting impact on cardiovascular disease mortality.The exposure-lag-response relationship showed that for every 1℃change in extreme temperature,the maximum cold effect on cardiovascular disease occurred at lag 3 days for the overall population as well as for males,females,individuals aged<65,and those aged≥65.The corresponding relative risk(RR)values were 1.027,1.026,1.033,1.022,and 1.045,respectively.The heat effect had a significant impact at lag 7 and lag 5 days on the overall population and residents aged 65 and above,with RR values of 1.040 and 1.045,respectively.Both the cold effect and the heat effect had statistically significant impacts(P<0.05)on cardiovascular diseases in the overall population with a cumulative lag of 21 days,with RR values of 1.131 and 1.145,respectively.During the study period,the specific mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases due to extreme temperatures in the overall population was 5.87%.Strati

关 键 词：极端气温 分布滞后非线性模型 循环系统疾病 时间序列 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]