2017—2021年天津市臭氧暴露风险及健康经济效益评估  

Assessment of ozone exposure risk and health economic benefits in Tianjin during 2017-2021

作　　者：李怀明 李敏姣 张雷波 尹立峰 王岱 邹迪 闫佩 LI Huai-ming;LI Min-jiao;ZHANG Lei-bo;YIN Li-feng;WANG Dai;ZOU Di;YAN Pei(Tianjin Academy of Eco-Environmental Sciences,Tianjin 300191,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]天津市生态环境科学研究院,天津300191 [2]天津环科环境规划科技发展有限公司

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2024年第10期912-917,共6页Journal of Environment and Health

基　　金：中国工程院院地合作项目(2020C0-0002);天津市科技计划项目(20YFZCSN01000)。

摘　　要：目的评估《打赢蓝天保卫战三年行动计划》政策实施前后近地面臭氧(O_(3))暴露对人类健康和经济的影响。方法本研究以京津冀地区重要城市——天津市为例,分析了2017—2021年天津市O_(3)浓度变化特征,并采用多种指标综合表征了O_(3)污染的长期健康经济损失及短期持续污染事件所致的人群暴露风险。结果2017—2021年天津市O_(3)浓度和超标天数均呈先升后降趋势,2021年O_(3)浓度较2018年峰值下降19.7%,超标天数减少51 d;五年间天津共经历49次O_(3)持续污染事件(OPEs),发生频率明显下降。归因于O_(3)污染的早逝人数和经济损失均呈下降趋势,2021年归因于O_(3)污染的全因、心脑血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病早逝人数较2017年分别减少21.0%、19.4%、51.8%,由此导致的健康经济损失也由2017年的25.6亿元(95%CI:13.96~37.08亿元)下降至2021年的19.87亿元(95%CI:10.82~28.83亿元),占GDP的比值由0.21%下降至0.13%。短期的O_(3)持续暴露风险相较于污染前后显著增加,不同阶段的O_(3)累积暴露评价指标SOMO_(3)5及各健康终端早逝人数的大小排序为:OPEs>PRE-OPEs>AFT-OPEs,OPEs预测预警值得进一步关注。结论近年来O_(3)污染导致的健康负担和经济损失有所减轻,获得了显著的健康经济效益。Objective To understand the impact of near-surface ozone exposure on human health and economy before and after the implementation of the Three-year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky Defense Policy.Methods The characteristics of ozone concentration changes in Tianjin was analyzed from 2017 to 2021.The long-term health and economic losses of ozone pollution and the risk of population exposure caused by short-term continuous pollution events were evaluated by various indexes.Results The ozone concentration and days exceeding the standard in Tianjin increased first and then decreased from 2017 to 2021.Compared with the peak in 2018,the ozone concentration in 2021 decreased by 19.7%,and the days exceeding the standard decreased by 51 days.In the past five years,Tianjin experienced 49 continuous ozone pollution events(OPEs),and the frequency of OPEs decreased significantly.The number of premature deaths and economic losses attributable to ozone pollution showed a downward trend.In 2021,the number of premature deaths attributable to ozone pollution from all-cause,cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and respiratory diseases decreased by 21.0%,19.4%and 51.8%,respectively,compared with 2017.The resulting health economic loss also decreased from 2.56 billion yuan(95%CI:1.396-3.708 billion yuan)in 2017 to 1.987 billion yuan(95%CI:1.082-2.883 billion yuan)in 2021,and the ratio of GDP decreased from 0.21%to 0.13%.The short-term risk of continuous ozone exposure increased significantly compared with before and after pollution.The evaluation index SOMO35 of cumulative ozone exposure at different stages and the number of premature deaths at each healthy terminal ranked as OPEs>PRE-OPEs>AFT-OPEs.The prediction and warning of OPEs are worthy of further attention.Conclusion The implementation of the Three-year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky Defense Policy has reduced the health burden and economic losses caused by ozone pollution,achieving significant health economic benefits.

关 键 词：O_(3) 健康效益 短期暴露 O_(3)持续污染事件(OPEs) 天津市 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]