稳增长、控杠杆与中国的宏观经济波动  

Stable Growth,Leverage Control,and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in China

作　　者：陈汉鹏 Chen Hanpeng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所

出　　处：《投资研究》2024年第9期4-23,共20页Review of Investment Studies

摘　　要：为分析杠杆率目标的引入对于中国宏观经济波动所可能产生的影响,本文构建了一个含杠杆率的季度预测模型,并利用中国的经济数据对模型进行估计。研究发现:在短期,杠杆率波动会对未来需求产生反向的抑制作用;在长期,杠杆率的引入会导致中国潜在产出增速出现一定程度的下滑。如果政府在制定经济增长目标和杠杆率目标时未充分考虑二者之间的内在联系,经济可能会陷入减速和高杠杆的恶性循环。To analyze the potential impact of the introduction of leverage ratio targets on China's macroeconomic fluctuations,this paper constructs a quarterly forecasting model containing leverage ratio and estimates the model using China's economic data.It found that in the short term,volatility in leverage ratio will have a reverse inhibitory effect on future demand;In the long run,the introduction of leverage ratio will lead to decline in China's potential output growth rate.If the government fails to fully consider the inherent connection between economic growth targets and leverage targets,the economy may fall into a vicious cycle of deceleration and high leverage.

关 键 词：季度预测模型 宏观杠杆率 经济增长 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]