近40a流域气候变化与人类活动双重驱动下乌梁素海面积变化特征研究  

Area change characteristics of Wuliangsuhai Lake driven by climate change and human activities in the basin in the past 40 years

作　　者：孙金容 李兴[2] 魏敬铤 SUN Jinrong;LI Xing;WEI Jingting(College of Chemistry and Environmental Science,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,Inner Mongolia,China;Engineering Research Center of Water-Saving Agriculture,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,Inner Mongolia,China;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Environmental Science Society,Hohhot 010022,Inner Mongolia,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古师范大学化学与环境科学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010022 [2]内蒙古师范大学节水农业工程研究中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010022 [3]内蒙古自治区环境科学学会,内蒙古呼和浩特010022

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2024年第10期1688-1699,共12页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(2020ZY0026);国家自然科学基金项目(52160022)资助。

摘　　要：湖泊面积变化是流域气候变化和人类活动的指示剂,明确湖泊面积时空动态过程是评估湖泊生态环境变化及其影响的基础。基于Landsat系列卫星影像,利用监督分类法提取1986—2021年乌梁素海面积;采用一元线性回归、M-K趋势、突变检验对乌梁素海流域的气温、降水量、相对湿度、潜在蒸散发进行了趋势、突变分析;收集流域人类活动数据,运用相关性和多元线性回归分析了气候变化和人类活动对湖泊面积变化的影响。结果表明:(1)乌梁素海面积从316.19 km^(2)波动增加到332.34 km^(2),增加了5.11%;流域气温显著上升、降水增加幅度小且不显著,相对湿度和潜在蒸散发呈增加趋势,流域气候整体变暖。(2)湖泊面积与气温、降水量呈正相关,与相对湿度、潜在蒸散发呈负相关,流域人口、国内生产总值、农作物播种面积与湖泊面积均呈显著正相关。(3)2002—2021年湖泊面积扩大,GDP贡献率为76.83%,人口贡献率为18.37%,潜在蒸散发贡献率为7.73%,湖泊面积变化受人类活动影响更大。The variation in lake area is a key indicator of climate change and human activities within a basin.The spatiotemporal dynamics of lake area are essential for assessing changes in the lake’s ecological environment and their impacts.Utilizing the Landsat series of satellite images,this study applies the normalized difference water index(NDWI),the modified normalized difference water index(MNDWI),the interspectral relationship method,and the maximum likelihood supervised classification technique to extract the area of Wuliangsuhai Lake,Inner Mongolia,China.A comparative analysis was conducted to evaluate the performance of these four water body indices.The supervised classification method,which demonstrated the highest precision,was employed to extract the area of Wuliangsuhai Lake from 1986 to 2021,and the lake’s change trend was analyzed.Additionally,the trends and abrupt changes in temperature,precipitation,relative humidity,and potential evapotranspiration in the Wuliangsuhai Lake were analyzed using univariate linear regression,the M-K trend test,and the mutation test.The results indicate that the lake surface area of Wuliangsuhai Lake expanded from 316.19 km^(2) to 332.34 km^(2),reflecting an increase of 5.11%.Temperature and precipitation showed a significant upward trend,while relative humidity and potential evapotranspiration also increased,indicating overall warming in the basin.From 2002 to 2021,the sown area of crops demonstrated a strong positive correlation with lake area,with GDP contributing 76.83%,population contributing 18.37%,and potential evapotranspiration contributing 7.73%to the overall change.

关 键 词：湖泊面积 水体指数 气候变化 人类活动 驱动因素 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P343.3