2019-2023年广州市12320卫生热线数与人群流感活动的相关性分析  

Correlation analysis between the number of 12320 health hotlines and population influenza activity in Guangzhou,2019-2023

作　　者：王娟[1] 陈志涛 王碧云 王德东[1] 黄敏欢[4] 吴迪 刘艳慧[1] 王志伟[1] WANG Juan;CHEN Zhitao;WANG Biyun;WANG Dedong;HUANG Minhuan;WU Di;LIU Yanhui;WANG Zhiwei(Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510440,China;School of Medicine,Jinan University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510632,China;Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Hospital,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830002,China;Guangzhou Nansha District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou,Guangdong 511400,China)

机构地区：[1]广州市疾病预防控制中心,广东广州510440 [2]暨南大学医学院,广东广州510632 [3]新疆生产建设兵团医院,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [4]广州市南沙区疾病预防控制中心,广东广州511400

出　　处：《热带医学杂志》2024年第10期1485-1489,F0003,共6页Journal of Tropical Medicine

基　　金：广州市卫生健康科技项目(20241A011062,20221A010087);广州市科技计划项目(2023A03J0463)。

摘　　要：目的描述12320卫生热线的数量与流感活动的时间变化趋势,分析12320卫生热线数量与流感活动的相关性。方法从12320卫生热线平台导出2019-2023年所有数据,依据“流感”“感冒”“发热”“咳嗽”等关键词筛选出与流感相关的话务与工单。绘制话务和工单与流感病例数和流感样病例百分比(ILI%)的时间序列图和散点图,采用Spearman秩相关进行每周及每月的相关性分析。结果话务中咨询类数量最多,投诉类数量呈逐年上升趋势;工单中投诉类占比最大。2023年流感发病数最高,2021年最低;ILI%在2022年最高(7.41%),在2019年最低(5.28%)。话务和工单数量的变化趋势与流感活动变化呈现较高的相似性。每月话务数量与流感病例数和ILI%均存在相关性(r=0.39、0.39,P均<0.01),每周话务数量与流感病例数和ILI%均存在相关性(r=0.34、0.32,P均<0.01)。无论是每月或是每周的工单数量均与流感病例数无相关性(P>0.05),而与ILI%存在相关性(r=0.53、0.43,P均<0.01)。将流感活动前后移动1个月、1周和2周,与12320卫生热线数的相关性均会减小甚至不具有统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论12320卫生热线平台能起到公众沟通、风险沟通、舆论监测等作用,可以辅助进行实时的流感监测与分析,为完善流感预警系统提供科学基础。Objective To describe the temporal trends of the number of 12320 health hotlines and influenza activity,and analyze the correlation between the number of 12320 health hotlines and influenza activity.Methods The data on telephone traffic and service tickets were extracted from the 12320 health hotline platform,and were selected based on keywords such as“influenza”,“cold”,“fever”,“cough”and so on.Time series plots and scatter plots between telephone traffic as well as service tickets and influenza cases as well as influenza-like illness percentage(ILI%)were generated,and Spearman rank correlation was used for weekly and monthly correlation analyses.Results The consultation category among the telephone traffic had the highest number,while the number of complaints showed an increasing trend.The complaints category among service tickets accounted for the highest proportion.The number of influenza cases was highest in 2023 and lowest in 2021;ILI%was highest in 2022(7.41%)and lowest in 2019(5.28%).The trends in the number of telephone traffic and service tickets showed a high similarity with changes in influenza activity.The monthly telephone traffic correlated with influenza cases and ILI%(r=0.39,0.39;all P<0.01).The weekly telephone traffic also showed correlations with influenza cases and ILI%(r=0.34,0.32;all P<0.01).However,there was no correlation between the number of service tickets,either monthly or weekly,and the number of influenza cases(P>0.05),while a correlation existed with ILI%(r=0.53,0.43;all P<0.01).Moving the influenza activity forward or backward by one month,one week and two weeks reduced or even did not show statistically significant correlation with the number of 12320 health hotline(P>0.05).Conclusions The 12320 health hotline platform played an important role in public communication,risk communication,and public opinion monitoring.It could assist in real-time monitoring and analysis of influenza,providing a scientific basis for improving influenza surveillance systems.

关 键 词：流感 12320卫生热线 流感样病例百分比 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学]