基于两相四阶段法的城市路网规划交通量预测研究  

A Study on Traffic Volume Prediction Based on the Two-phases-four-stages Method for Urban Road Network Planning

作　　者：刘梦琴 LIU Mengqin(CCCC Second Highway Consultants Co.,LTD.,Wuhan 430056,China)

机构地区：[1]中交第二公路勘察设计研究院有限公司,武汉430056

出　　处：《交通工程》2024年第11期116-121,共6页Journal of Transportation Engineering

摘　　要：依托实际工程项目,针对斯里兰卡科伦坡地区的城市路网规划及交通量进行深入研究,从大范围到小范围调研了斯里兰卡、西方省、科伦坡的经济发展现状,分析影响经济和交通发展的影响因素,综合考虑路网相和交通相两方面因素,采用“两相四阶段法”对项目影响区的社会经济和交通发展趋势进行分析预测。预测结果表明本项目2025—2040年交通量由22789 veh/d上升为42736 veh/d,其中小汽车的所占车型比例逐渐降低,中型卡车所占比例逐年增加。本文考虑因素众多,预测结果可靠,为项目地区或同类型社会经济条件下的项目建设规模、建设方案及经济效益等提供了参考依据,同时为城市路网交通量预测研究提供了新的思路和方法。This paper is based on a real engineering project and conducts in-depth research on urban road network planning and traffic volume in Colombo,Sri Lanka.It surveys the economic development status of Sri Lanka,Western Province,and Colombo from a broad to narrow perspective,analyzes the influencing factors of economic and traffic development,and comprehensively considers both network and traffic factors.It uses the“two-phase four-stage method”to analyze and predict the social and economic trends and traffic volume in the project s influence area from 2025 to 2040.The prediction results show that the traffic volume in the project area will increase from 22789 veh/d in 2025 to 42736 veh/d in 2040,and the proportion of small cars will gradually decrease,while the proportion of medium trucks will increase year by year.This paper considers many factors and the prediction results are reliable,providing reference basis for project scale,construction scheme,and economic benefits under similar social and economic conditions,and providing new ideas and methods for urban road network traffic volume prediction research.

关 键 词：交通运输规划 路网结构 两相四阶段 路网竞争性分析 交通量预测 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]