新型工业化城市环境能源复合承载力评价——以东莞市环境能源可持续发展为例  

Evaluation of Environment and Energy Compound Carrying Capacity in Newly Industrialized Cities——A Case Study of Environmental and Energy Sustainable Development of Dongguan

作　　者：李春慧 陈翔[2] 李向阳[2] 王思淼 汪子雄 汪天祥[1,4,5,6] LI Chunhui;CHEN Xiang;LI Xiangyang;WANG Simiao;WANG Zixiong;WANG Tianxiang(School of Chemical Engineering,Ocean and Life Sciences,Dalian University of Technology,Panjin 124221,Liaoning,China;Pearl River Water Conservancy Comprehensive Technology Center,Pearl River Water Conservancy Commission,Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510610,Guangdong,China;Guangzhou Pearl River Water Resources Protection Technology Development Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510610,Guangdong,China;Department of Physical&Environmental Sciences,University of Toronto,Toronto M1C 1A4,Ontario,Canada;State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment,Nanjing 210008,Jiangsu,China;Key Laboratory of Coastal Science and Integrated Management,Ministry of Natural Resources,Qingdao 266061,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学化工海洋与生命学院,辽宁盘锦124221 [2]水利部珠江水利委员会珠江水利综合技术中心,广东广州510610 [3]广州珠江水资源保护科技发展有限公司,广东广州510610 [4]多伦多大学物理与环境科学学部,安大略多伦多M1C 1A4 [5]中国科学院地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,江苏南京210008 [6]自然资源部海岸带科学与综合管理重点实验室,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《南方能源建设》2024年第6期79-87,共9页Southern Energy Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“冰生消过程对湾区氮磷在多介质系统中迁移的影响机制研究”(42277383);湖泊与环境国家重点实验室开放基金项目“冰封期水库冰-沉积物双驱动下的水质模型研究”(2022SKL020);中央高校基本科研项目“辽河与珠江河口城镇结构对水生态环境的影响”(DUT20RC(3)059);海岸带科学与综合管理重点实验室开放基金项目“冰封期河口区氮磷多介质垂向迁移过程及影响因素研究”(2021COSIM1005)。

摘　　要：[目的]高强度人类活动产生的污染排放和能源消耗的双重胁迫直接影响了城市的高质量发展,传统单一的环境承载力或能源承载力评价难以全面评估城市发展面临的压力和所处状态,文章以新型工业化城市广东省东莞市为例,对环境能源复合承载力进行评价,并通过探究影响因素对东莞市发展提出针对性建议。[方法]基于压力-状态-响应分析思想,文章从社会经济与环境能源两个系统中优选了19个评价指标构建了环境能源复合承载力评价指标体系,由层次分析法确定评价指标权重,并进行标准化处理以获得较高的可比性,利用可变模糊评价方法计算样本相对隶属度以反映指标的动态连续变化。[结果]研究表明2005-2021年间东莞市环境能源复合承载力由0.10提升至0.77,在环境治理加强以及能源效率提升的驱动下上呈现改善趋势,东莞市环境能源复合承载力的提升需要关注水资源短缺、林地覆盖率减少与强化市政建设运维方面。[结论]构建的环境能源复合承载力评价体系能有效反映水环境承载力与能源承载力的协同变化,为探索城市环境、能源演化过程以及可持续发展提供参考。[Introduction]The concurrent stress of pollution emissions and energy consumption resulting from high-intensity human activities directly affect the high-quality development of cities.However,assessing the pressure and status of urban development comprehensively proves challenging through traditional single environment carrying capacity or energy carrying capacity.With a case study of the city of Dongguan,a new industrialized city in Guangdong province,as an example,the paper evaluated the environment and energy compound carrying capacity,and put forward targeted suggestions for the development of Dongguan by exploring the influencing factors.[Method]Based on the idea of pressure-state-response analysis,the paper constructed an evaluation index system of environment and energy compound carrying capacity by selecting 19 evaluation indicators from two systems of social economy and environment and energy.The weights of the evaluation indicators were determined by the hierarchical analysis method and standardized to achieve a high degree of comparability.The relative affiliation of samples was calculated using the variable fuzzy evaluation method to reflect the dynamic changes of the indicators.[Result]The results of this study show that the environment and energy compound carrying capacity of Dongguan increased from 0.10 to 0.77 from 2005 to 2021,indicating an improving trend driven by the strengthening of environmental governance and the improvement of energy efficiency.To improve the environment and energy compound carrying capacity in Dongguan,attention should be paid to the shortage of water resources,the reduction of forest land coverage,and the strengthening of municipal construction and operation.[Conclusion]The environment and energy compound carrying capacity evaluation system constructed in the paper effectively reflects the synergistic changes of water environmental carrying capacity and energy carrying capacity,providing a reference for the study of sustainable urban development and the evolution of urba

关 键 词：复合承载力 环境 能源 层次分析法 可变模糊评价 障碍度分析 

分 类 号：X821[环境科学与工程—环境工程]