蒙特卡洛模拟法在计算风场超越概率发电量中的应用  

Application of Monte Carlo Simulation for Calculating Power Generation with Exceeding Probability in Wind Farm

作　　者：李化 张彬彬 丁艳军 LI Hua;ZHANG Binbin;DING Yanjun(Runyang Energy Technology Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]润阳能源技术有限公司,天津300300

出　　处：《南方能源建设》2024年第6期174-182,共9页Southern Energy Construction

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项项目“风力发电复杂风资源特性研究及其应用与验证”(2018YFB1501100)。

摘　　要：[目的]风场不确定性给风场发电量带来呈概率的分布,对不确定性因素进行科学并客观地评估是计算风场超越概率发电量的重要前提。目前行业普遍采用折减系数的办法来预估发电量,达到控制风险的目的,或者对不确定性因素按概率取值计算,以评估风场的超越概率发电量。针对这种简单的折减或者忽视不确定因素的本质计算风场超越概率发电量的做法,文章旨在提出一种既遵循不确定因素的本质还能科学地计算风场超越概率发电量计算方法。[方法]文章采用蒙特卡洛模拟法构建不确定性因素的正态概率分布模型,对不确定性进行模拟,并得出统计结果。通过借助风速-发电量敏感因子,确定风场发电量的不确定性程度,最终计算风场超越概率发电量。[结果]蒙特卡洛进行多次随机模拟结果是服从正态分布的具体函数。文章举例模拟了不确定性因素标准差分别为平均值的12.0%、14.0%、16.0%3种情况的结果,特定置信区间95%风速不确定性程度的分布范围分别为7.08%~8.56%、6.97%~8.71%、6.88%~8.84%,发电量总不确定性程度分布范围分别为13.36%~15.92%、13.17%~16.18%、13.01%~16.41%,超越概率发电量分布范围分别为96.06~101.52 GWh、95.50~101.92 GWh、95.01~102.26 GWh。[结论]采用超越概率发电量作为评估风场投资风险依据,有助于在正确、可靠的基础上进行决策,运用蒙特卡洛模拟方法体现了科学性和高效性,得到的结果具有统计意义。[Introduction]The uncertainty of wind farm brings probability distribution to power generation.The objective and scientific evaluation of uncertainty factors is an important prerequisite for calculating power generation with exceeding probability in wind farm.At present,the industry generally adopts reduction factos to estimate power generation to achieve risk control.Alternatively,uncertain factors are analyzed using probabilistic methods to evaluate the exceedance probability of power generation in wind farms.In view of the simple reduction or neglect of the nature of the uncertain factors,this paper proposes a scientific method to calculate the power generation with exceeding probability in wind farm following the nature of the uncertain factors.[Method]In this paper,the Monte Carlo simulation method was used to construct the normal probability distribution model of uncertainty factors,to simulate and obtain the statistical results for uncertainty.The wind speed-power generation senitivity factor was applied to determin the uncertainty in wind farm power generation,and finally,the exceeding probability of wind farm power generation was calculate.[Result]The results of many random simulations by Monte Carlo are concrete functions obeying normal distribution.In this paper,the results of three cases,the standard deviation of uncertainty factor is 12.0%,14.0%,16.0%of the average,are simulated.The distribution range of 95%wind speed uncertainty in specific confidence interval is 7.08%~8.56%,6.97%~8.71%and 6.88%~8.84%,and the distribution range of total uncertainty of power generation is 13.36%~15.92%,13.17%~16.18%and 13.01%~16.41%respectively.The distribution range of power generation with exceeding probability is 96.06~101.52 GWh,95.5~101.92 GWh and 95.01~102.26 GWh respectively.[Conclusion]It is helpful for decision-making to be established on a correct and reliable basis to evaluate the investment risk of wind farm based on the power generation with exceeding probability.The Monte Carlo simulation method is scie

关 键 词：不确定性因素 正态分布 蒙特卡洛模拟法 风速-发电量敏感因子 超越概率发电量 

分 类 号：TU311[建筑科学—结构工程]