成本收益视角中国牧草生产变化趋势及比较分析  

The Change Trend and Comparative Analysis of Forage Production in the Perspective of Cost-Benefit

作　　者：倪印锋 王明利[2] NI Yinfeng;WANG Mingli(School of Economics and Trade,Shandong Management University,Jinan 250357,China;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]山东管理学院经贸学院,山东济南250357 [2]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国草地学报》2024年第11期101-109,共9页Chinese Journal of Grassland

基　　金：财政部和农业农村部:国家现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-34-28);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72003194)。

摘　　要：科学核算牧草生产成本收益并把握其未来变化趋势,对牧草生产降本增效和产业高质量发展具有重要意义。本研究基于2015~2023年国家牧草产业技术体系试验站跟踪调查数据,运用描述性统计和对比分析法,对中国主要牧草生产成本和收益的结构性和趋势性变化进行系统核算和分析。结果表明:(1)苜蓿、青贮玉米和燕麦生产成本呈波动上升趋势,黑麦草生产成本呈下降态势;在成本构成中,肥料费、机械费和地租费占比较高且为直接影响成本变化的主要因素。(2)四种牧草单位价格的变化对收益的影响远超单位产量,苜蓿和燕麦的收益随单位价格先降后升,青贮玉米和黑麦草的收益随单位价格呈波动上升趋势。(3)苜蓿生产具有低投入高回报的特点,青贮玉米生产具有高投入低回报的特点,黑麦草生产具有高投入高回报的特点,燕麦生产具有低投入低回报的特点。最后,提出了促进牧草生产降本增效的建议。It is of great significance to scientifically calculate the cost and benefit of forage production and grasp the trend of its change in the future for reducing costs and increasing efficiency in grass production and promoting high-quality industrial development.Based on the tracking survey data of the National For-age Industry Technology System Experimental Station from 2015 to 2023,this study used descriptive sta-tistics and comparative analysis to systematically calculate and analyzed the structural and trend changes of the production costs and income of main forage in China.The results showed that:(1)The production cost of alfalfa,silage corn and oat showed a fluctuating upward trend,while the production cost of ryegrass showed a decreasing trend.In the cost composition,the cost of fertilizer,machinery and land rent were the main factors that directly affected cost changes.(2)The influence of the change of unit price on the income of the four forage species was far greater than that of the change of unit yield.The income of alfalfa and oat decreased first and then increased with the unit price,while the income of silage corn and ryegrass fluctu-ated and increased with the unit price.(3)Alfalfa production had the characteristics of low input and high return,silage corn production had the characteristics of high input and low return,ryegrass production had the characteristics of high input and high return,and oat production had the characteristics of low input and low return.Finally,some suggestions were put forward to reduce cost and increase efficiency of forage pro-duction.

关 键 词：苜蓿 青贮玉米 黑麦草 燕麦 价格 产量 成本收益 

分 类 号：F307.3[经济管理—产业经济]