致命性自主武器国际规范大国立场差异分析  

Exploring the Positions of Major Countries on International Norms for Lethal Autonomous Weapons

作　　者：陈根锋 孙学峰[2] Chen Genfeng;Sun Xuefeng

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际关系学系 [2]清华大学国际关系研究院

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2024年第11期5-22,134,共19页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代下国际领导力研究”(项目批准号:21&ZD167)的部分研究成果。

摘　　要：致命性自主武器是全球安全治理的重要议题,但大国在如何限制致命性自主武器上的规范立场存在明显差异,具体包括反对限制、中立平衡和支持限制三类立场。其中,能力水平顶尖的超级大国和能力水平有限的大国都倾向于反对制定具有约束力的限制规则;能力水平落后的大国则更倾向于支持限制的立场;能力水平领先的大国总体上倾向持中立平衡立场,但外部压力会影响其立场选择。在可见的未来,致命性自主武器的应用将更为广泛,军备竞赛的风险也会随之上升。与此同时,国际社会对限制致命性自主武器的支持将逐步增强,但短期内在联合国框架内达成具有国际法约束力规则的可能性仍较低。因此,中国应继续在联合国框架下积极参与致命性自主武器国际规范的构建,深化与其他国家的协调合作,推动建立更为适用的国际规范与全球治理框架。Lethal autonomous weapons(LAWs)have become a significant issue in global security governance.However,there are obvious differences among major countries regarding how to regulate them,which can be categorized into three positions:opposition to restrictions,neutral balance,and support for restrictions.Among them,superpowers with top-level LAWs capabilities and major countries with limited LAWs capabilities generally oppose the establishment of binding restrictive rules,while major countries with low-level LAWs capabilities tend to support restrictions.Major countries with advanced LAWs capabilities are more inclined to adopt a neutral stance,although external pressures will influence their position.In the foreseeable future,the deployment of lethal autonomous weapons is expected to increase,increasing the risk of arms races.Simultaneously,international support for regulating these weapons is anticipated to strengthen,yet the prospect of achieving binding international legal rules within the framework of the United Nations remains low in the short term.Therefore,China should continue to actively participate in the construction of international norms on LAWs under the United Nations framework,deepen coordination and cooperation with other countries,and promote the establishment of more applicable international norms and global governance frameworks.

关 键 词：大国 致命性自主武器 国际规范 国际安全 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]