华北北部跨断层形变特征与地震预测效能回溯性分析  

Retrospective Analysis of Cross-Fault Deformation Characteristics and Earthquake Prediction Efficiency in Northern North China

作　　者：李惠玲[1,2] 曹建玲[3] 洪敏[4] 张晶[3] 李颖[1,2] LI Huiling;CAO Jianling;HONG Min;ZHANG Jing;LI Ying(Shanxi Earthquake Agency,69 Second Section of Jinci Road,Taiyuan 030021,China;National Continental Rift Valley Dynamics Observatory of Taiyuan,Jinci Town,Taiyuan 030025,China;Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,CEA,63 Fuxing Road,Beijing 100036,China;Yunnan Earthquake Agency,148 Beichen Road,Kunming 650224,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省地震局,太原市030021 [2]太原大陆裂谷动力学国家野外科学观测研究站,太原市030025 [3]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京市100036 [4]云南省地震局,昆明市650224

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2024年第12期1240-1249,共10页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41974111);山西太原大陆裂谷动力学国家野外科学观测研究站项目(NORSTY2022-04);中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2024010216);山西省地震局山西南部区域中短期异常与地震趋势判定研究创新团队;山西省地震局重点科研项目(SBK-2326)。

摘　　要：基于华北北部区域跨断层水准和基线观测资料,利用前兆异常定量识别和地震预测效能检验技术,结合区域历史震例(M≥5.0),开展跨断层垂直及水平变形前兆特征研究。根据垂直、水平形变速率合成结果,利用R值评分标准,采用速率差分方法对统计检验和分步检验结果进行地震预测效能回溯性分析。结果表明,华北北部,特别是首都圈及山西北部地区,断层运动在多次地震前出现不同程度速率变化特征。从预报效能来看,12个月窗长速率差分策略显示的预报效能较好,对潜在地震危险性判定具有更强的指示意义。在大同6.1级和张北6.2级地震前,至少出现17项通过预测效能检验的跨断层异常,异常集中分布在距离震中100~300 km范围,且多为持续超过1 a的趋势异常。大同6.1级地震前,首都圈及山西北部跨断层水准异常以逆断变化为主,区域断层变形表现出协同增强特征。Based on the quantitative identification of precursor anomalies and the effectiveness testing of earthquake prediction,we conduct research on the precursor characteristics of vertical and horizontal deformation across faults.We use leveling and baseline observation data in northern north China,combined with historical earthquake(M≥5.0)cases in this region.Meanwhile,based on the composite results of vertical and horizontal deformation rates,we use the rate difference method to conduct a retrospective analysis of seismic prediction efficiency using the R-value scoring standard for static and stepwise statistical test results.The results show that those faults in northern north China,especially in the capital area and northern Shanxi,exhibit varying degrees of rate changes before multiple earthquakes.The results of prediction efficiency show that 12-month window length rate difference method presents good prediction efficiency,which has stronger indicative significance for potential earthquake hazard assessment.Before the Datong M6.1 and Zhangbei M6.2 earthquakes,there are more than 17 anomalies which meet R-value scoring standard.The anomalies are concentrated in the range of 100 to 300 km from the epicenter and last over 1 year.Before the Datong M6.1 earthquake,the leveling anomalies in the capital region and northern Shanxi are dominant with thrust rates change,and regional fault deformation present collaborative enhancement.

关 键 词：华北北部 跨断层形变 预测效能 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]