基于InSAR的鲜水河断裂带震间运动学参数反演与地震危险性评估  

Interseismic Kinematic Parameters Inversion and Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone Based on InSAR

作　　者：贺礼家 卢昊 冯光财[1] 熊志强 王跃东 高华 王文昕 杨小平 吕利清 HE Lijia;LU Hao;FENG Guangcai;XIONG Zhiqiang;WANG Yuedong;GAO Hua;WANG Wenxin;YANG Xiaoping;L Liqing(School of Geosciences and Info-Physics,Central South University,932 South-Lushan Road,Changsha 410083,China;Tianjin Survey and Design Institute for Water Transport Engineering Co Ltd,1199 Xiamen Road,Tianjing 300456,China;School of Land Science and Technology,China University of Geosciences,29 Xueyuan Road,Beijing 100083,China;School of Geography and Environment,Jiangxi Normal University,99 Ziyang Road,Nanchang 330022,China;Hangzhou Environmental Survey Planning and Design Co Ltd,560 Jincheng Road,Hangzhou 311201,China;Hangzhou Real Estate Development Research Center,468 Yan’an Road,Hangzhou 310006,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学地球科学与信息物理学院,长沙市410083 [2]天津水运工程勘察设计院有限公司,天津市300456 [3]中国地质大学(北京)土地科学技术学院,北京市100083 [4]江西师范大学地理与环境学院,南昌市330022 [5]杭州环地勘测规划设计有限公司,杭州市311201 [6]杭州市房地产发展研究中心,杭州市310006

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2024年第12期1256-1263,共8页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42174039);湖南省研究生科研创新基金(CX20210105);中南大学研究生自主探索创新基金(2021zzts0250);江西省重点研发计划(20232BBE50021)。

摘　　要：对2015~2022年跨鲜水河断裂带的Sentinel-1A/B数据进行分析,获取该断裂带的震间视线向形变速率场。以升降轨InSAR形变速率分解得到的断层平行方向的水平形变速率为数据约束,基于螺旋位错模型和遗传优化算法,反演鲜水河断裂带的震间运动学参数,得到该断裂带的构造加载速率(3.5~13.0 mm/a)、闭锁深度(14.7~26.2 km)、浅层蠕滑速率(3.2~12.5 mm/a)及其顶部深度(0.3~2 km)和底部深度(3.4~13.7 km)的空间变化。联合鲜水河断裂带的历史地震活动性和反演的震间运动学参数,计算炉霍段、道孚段、乾宁段、康定段和磨西段在震间阶段的地震矩亏损率、累积的地震矩以及矩震级,定量评估不同分段的发震风险性。结果发现,鲜水河断裂各分段均有发生M_(W)6.5以上地震的潜力,炉霍段和乾宁段有发生M_(W)6.9左右地震的风险,未来应持续关注其危险性。We conduct analysis on Sentinel-1A/B datasets(2015 to 2022)across the Xianshuihe fault zone(XSHFZ)and obtain the interseismic line-of-sight(LOS)deformation fields.Under the constraint of the fault parallel horizontal velocities derived from the decomposition of the ascending and descending InSAR-derived LOS deformations,we invert the interseismic kinematic parameters of the XSHFZ.Inversion results show a spatial variation of the tectonic loading rate(3.5-13.0 mm/a),locking depth(14.7-26.2 km),shallow creep rate(3.2-12.5 mm/a),and the corresponding top depth(0.3-2 km)and bottom depth(3.4-13.7 km).Combining the historic seismicity and the inferred interseismic kinematic parameters of the XSHFZ,we calculate the seismic moment deficit rate,accumulated seismic moment and moment magnitude of the Luhuo,Daofu,Qianning,Kangding,and Moxi segments during the interseismic stage,and then quantitatively evaluate the seismic risk of different segments.Results show that all segments have the potential to produce an earthquake with magnitude larger than M_(W)6.5,and there is a risk of earthquakes with magnitude of~M_(W)6.9 on the Luhuo and Qianning segments.We should pay more attention to the risk on these faults.

关 键 词：鲜水河断裂带 INSAR 震间形变 滑动速率 闭锁深度 地震危险性 

分 类 号：P237[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感] P313[天文地球—测绘科学与技术] P315