新生命表对寿险精算定价的影响分析  

The Effects of New Life Table on Life Insurance s Actuary Pricing

作　　者：周华林 王向楠[2] Zhou Hualin;Wang Xiangnan

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学金融学院 [2]中国社会科学院金融研究所

出　　处：《经济研究参考》2024年第10期71-92,共22页Review of Economic Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于物质生产视角的中国长寿风险管理研究”(No.72064040)。

摘　　要：《中国人身保险业经验生命表(2023)(征求意见稿)》中,全国平均死亡率下调24.42%,预期寿命延长2岁左右,粤港澳大湾区死亡率低于全国水平。这意味着,中国人口老龄化现象加剧,粤港澳大湾区面临更为严峻的老龄化问题。本文分别测算了单独死亡率下调、死亡率和预定利率同时下调这两种情况下,各类寿险产品纯风险保费的变动情况。研究发现,单纯考虑死亡率下调时,死亡风险保险责任类险种的纯风险保费下降,生存风险保险责任类险种的纯风险保费上涨,具有较高杠杆系数的定期寿险保费的降幅最大,其中,30岁的定期寿险保费下降近50%。考虑死亡率下调和预定利率下调双重影响时,具有现金价值类寿险产品的纯风险保费普遍上涨,延期年金保险的纯风险保费的涨幅最大,其中,延期终身年金保险的纯风险保费上涨30%左右。这明显大于单纯考虑死亡率下调时的保费变动,反映出预定利率变动对现金价值类寿险产品的影响效应更大。粤港澳大湾区专属生命表的使用将在该区域寿险消费中产生更显著的价格作用,使男性养老风险管理的压力更大。In China Life Insurance Mortality Table 2023(Draft for Comments),the national average mortality rate decreased by 24.42%,with life expectancy extending by around 2 years.The mortality rate in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is lower than the national average.This implies that the population aging in China is worsening,and the Greater Bay Area faces a more severe aging problem.This paper separately calculates the changes in pure risk premiums for various life insurance products under the scenarios of solely decreasing mortality rates,and decreasing both mortality rates and interest rates.This paper found that when considering only the decrease in mortality rates,the pure risk premiums for death risk insurance responsibility types decreased,while those for survival risk insurance responsibility types increased.The premiums for term life insurance with higher leverage ratios sees the largest decrease,with premiums for 30-year-old term life insurance dropping by nearly 50%.When considering the combined impact of decreasing mortality rates and interest rates,the pure risk premiums for life insurance products with cash value generally increased.The pure risk premiums for deferred annuity insurance sees the largest increase,with premiums for deferred life annuity insurance rising by approximately 30%.This increase is significantly higher than the premium fluctuations when solely considering the decrease in mortality rates,indicating that the impact of interest rate fluctuations on life insurance products with cash value is more significant.The use of the new life tables exclusive to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will have a more significant price effect on life insurance consumption in this region,which exacerbates the pressure on managing retirement risks for males.

关 键 词：保险 人寿保险 养老金 死亡率 利率 

分 类 号：F840[经济管理—保险]