基于系统动力学模型的组合港竞争力提升路径研究  

Research on competitiveness promotion path of combination ports based on system dynamics models

作　　者：张宝清 ZHANG Bao-qing(CCCC Third Harbor Consultants Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200032,China)

机构地区：[1]中交第三航务工程勘察设计院有限公司,上海200032

出　　处：《中国港湾建设》2024年第11期58-63,共6页China Harbour Engineering

摘　　要：为了更好推进区域港口一体化进程,明晰组合港竞争力提升路径,在分析组合港竞争力影响因素层次关系,结合系统动力学理论及方法描述因果作用关系的基础上构建系统流图及动力学方程,选取相关参数进行政策模拟,通过比选不同方案探究不同路径下竞争力变化情况。结果表明:运用系统动力学模型探究不同路径下广州-东莞港组合港竞争力变化情况合理可行,所得结果将为广州-东莞港组合港尽快融入粤港澳大湾区组合港建设提供有力的理论支撑。In order to better promote the regional port integration process and clarify the competitiveness promotion path of combination ports,a system flow graph and dynamic equations are constructed based on the analysis of the hierarchical relationship of factors affecting the competitiveness of combination ports and the description of causal relationships using system dynamics theory and methods.Relevant parameters are selected for policy simulation,the changes in competitiveness under different paths are explored by comparing different schemes.The results show that it is reasonable and feasible to use the system dynamics model to explore the changes in the competitiveness of the Guangzhou-Dongguan combination port under different paths,and the results will provide a strong theoretical support for the integration of the Guangzhou-Dongguan combination port into the construction of the Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Greater Bay Area combination port as soon as possible.

关 键 词：广州-东莞港组合港 竞争力 系统动力学 提升路径 

分 类 号：U651[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]