新冠疫情冲击下农业对非农失业的缓冲作用:农业劳动力蓄水池功能的再思考  

The Buffering Effect of Agriculture on Non-agricultural Unemployment Under COVID-19:Rethinking the Labor Reservoir Function of Agriculture

作　　者：孙婧芳[1] 蔚金霞 杜凤莲[3,4] SUN Jingfang;YU Jinxia;DU Fenglian

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所 [2]中国社会科学院大学经济学院 [3]内蒙古大学经济管理学院 [4]内蒙古大学时间利用与调查研究中心

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2024年第11期42-60,共19页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“财税政策支持高质量充分就业的机制和路径优化研究”(编号:24AJY020)的支持。

摘　　要：本文将新冠疫情视为劳动力市场的外来冲击,采用双重差分模型,从非农就业、失业和务农的视角分析农村劳动力在面临非农失业冲击时的就业选择。研究发现:疫情严重地区的农村劳动力在新冠疫情冲击发生之后的非农就业概率显著下降,但务农概率并未显著变化。这说明,农民工在冲击下失去非农就业机会之后并未转向农业就业,而是选择了失业,其就业选择呈现非农就业常态化的特征。在新冠疫情冲击下,农村劳动力也难以提高农业收入,且存在较大的刚性支出和住房贷款压力,这强化了农村劳动力保持及获得非农就业的需求。本文得到如下启示:在中国当前的农业生产条件和家庭收入结构下,农业的劳动力蓄水池功能在应急性和共济性方面弱化,难以充分吸纳遭遇非农失业的农村劳动力以缓解外来冲击下非农就业的下降;农业收入的有限性也使得农业在农村居民家庭遇到外来冲击时难以起到抵御风险的作用;需要更加关注农民工的非农失业问题。This paper uses the COVID-19 epidemic as an external shock to the labor market,and uses the Difference-in-Differences model to analyze the employment choices of rural laborers facing non-agricultural unemployment shock from the perspective of non-agricultural employment,unemployment,and farming.We find that the probability of non-agricultural employment in rural laborers in severely affected areas significantly decreases after the epidemic,but the probability of farming does not change significantly.This indicates that migrant workers do not turn to agriculture after losing their non-agricultural employment under the shock,but choose to be unemployed.Their employment choices show the characteristic of normalization of non-agricultural employment.Under the shock,it is also difficult to for the rural laborers to increase the agricultural income,and there is significant rigid expenditure and housing loan pressure,which strengthens the demand for rural laborers to maintain and obtain non-agricultural employment.This paper has the following implications.Under the current agricultural production conditions and household income structure in China,the labor reservoir function of agriculture in terms of emergency and mutual aid is weakened,making it difficult to fully absorb the rural laborers that have encountered non-agricultural unemployment to alleviate the decline in non-agricultural employment under external shocks.The limited agricultural income also makes it difficult for rural households to resist risks when facing extermal shocks.More attention needs to be paid to the issue of non-agricultural unemployment among migrantworkers.

关 键 词：农民工 外来冲击 非农就业 非农失业 劳动力蓄水池 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]