基于Sent-LDA的装备制造企业重要风险点识别及演化研究  

Identification and Evolution Analysis of Critical Risk Points in Equipment Manufacturing Enterprises Based on Sent-LDA

作　　者：徐尚英[1,2] 陈秋阳 刘平峰 XU Shang-ying;CHEN Qiu-yang;LIU Ping-feng(School of Economics,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;Hubei Provincial Research Center for E-Business Big Data Engineering Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学经济学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]湖北省电子商务大数据工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2024年第11期79-96,共18页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题“不稳定不确定环境下装备制造企业运营风险机理与防范”(2022YFB3305501);国家重点研发计划课题“基于决策闭环反馈的业务流程动态重构机理和智能优化”(2022YFB3305504)。

摘　　要：面对动态变化、复杂多样、不确定性增强的内外部环境,装备制造企业突发冲击型重要风险点的精准识别与演化研究对于建构产业安全体系、支撑经济发展建设具有重要意义.针对438家计算机通信类上市公司2018-2022年间的1648份年报风险文本数据和2808篇主流新闻媒体风险文本数据,基于Sent-LDA模型对双源数据集进行风险主题聚类,识别出装备制造企业所面临的27个重要风险点,结合关键词共现自动划分出突发冲击型、持续调整型和衰减迟滞型三类风险点,最后对装备制造企业突发冲击型风险点进行后离散演化分析.本研究方法更加直观、准确、前瞻地识别装备制造企业面临的重要风险点,年报文本和主流新闻风险文本数据能够有效反映风险点的演变情况,且新闻文本时效性更强.装备制造企业需关注风险演化规律,及时采取强有力的干预措施切断风险传递路径.Facing the dynamic,complex,and increasingly uncertain internal and external environments,the precise identification and evolution analysis of event-driven important risk points for equipment manufacturing enterprises are of great significance for constructing an industrial safety system and supporting economic development and construction.This article focuses on 1648 annual report risk textual data and 2808 mainstream news media risk textual data from 438 public companies in the computer and communication industry between 2018 and 2022.Based on the Sent-LDA model,the risk topic clustering is performed on the dual source dataset to identify 27 important risk points faced by equipment manufacturing enterprises.Combined with keyword co-occurrence,three types of risk points are automatically classified:Event-driven Risks,Continuous-adjustment Risks,and Declining-delay Risks.Finally,the post-discrete evolutionary analysis of Event-driven Risks in equipment manufacturing firms is performed.This research method provides a more intuitive,accurate,and forward-looking identification of important risk points faced by equipment manufacturing enterprises.The risk text of annual reports and mainstream news can effectively refect the evolution of risk points,and the news text is more timely.Equipment manufacturing enterprises need to pay attention to the risk evolution law,and timely take strong intervention measures to cut off the risk transmission path.

关 键 词：装备制造企业 文本挖掘 风险识别 演化分析 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F426.63F272.3F224