气候变化背景下桔小实蝇在中国的潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of potential Bactrocera dorsalis habitat-areas in China in the context of the ongoing climate change

作　　者：罗伟[1] 朱玉璘 李昱锐 王玲玲[1] 欧奕含 王茹琳 LUO Wei;ZHU Yulin;LI Yurui;WANG Lingling;OU Yihan;WANG Rulin(Zigong Meteorological Bureau,Zigong 643000,China;Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center,Chengdu 610072,China;Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture Research in Southern Hilly Areas,Chengdu 610066,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省自贡市气象局,自贡643000 [2]四川省农村经济综合信息中心,成都610072 [3]南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室,成都610066

出　　处：《应用与环境生物学报》2024年第5期959-966,共8页Chinese Journal of Applied and Environmental Biology

基　　金：四川省科技厅自然科学基金项目(2022NSFSC0589);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(SCQXKJYJXMS202304)资助。

摘　　要：基于桔小实蝇当前在中国的259个分布点和5个环境因子,利用MaxEnt模型预测了当前及未来(2050s、2090s)3种气候情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5)下桔小实蝇在中国的潜在适生区和面积,确定影响其分布的主导环境因子,为制定该虫的早期监测预警及防控措施提供科学依据.结果表明:最干月降水量(Bio14)和最干季度平均温度(Bio9)是影响桔小实蝇潜在分布的主导气候要素.当前,桔小实蝇适生区主要分布在秦岭至黄河以南,分布北界在38°±2°N,高适生区主要分布在西藏东南部、云南南部、江西东部、长江三角洲以及南部沿海地区,40°N附近有低适生区零散分布.未来气候情景下,桔小实蝇没有明显向北延伸的趋势,总适生区面积增幅在3.2%-7.1%,高适生区在长江以南的面积增幅高达16.2%-37.5%.因此,未来桔小实蝇在长江以南的扩张将会十分显著,扩张区域以四川与重庆交界处以南、珠江三角洲、江西和福建大部为主,应及时加强对上述地区的预警和防控.(图5表5参54)Based on 259 distribution sites and five environmental factors,the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential habitat areas of B.dorsalis in China in the 2050s and 2090s under SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5,such as to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of early monitoring and warning,and prevention measures.The dominant environmental variables affecting the distribution of this insect pest were determined.The results showed that driest monthly precipitation(Bio14)and quarterly mean temperature(Bio9)were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of B.dorsalis.Currently,the habitat area of B.dorsalis is mainly distributed in the Qinling Mountains to the south of the Yellow River,with its northern boundary at 38°±2°N,the highly-suitable area mainly distributed in southeastern Tibet,southern Yunnan,eastern Jiangxi,the Yangtze River delta,and southern coastal areas of China;lastly,the lowly-suitable areas for the insect to thrive are scattered around 40°N.Under the future climate scenarios listed,B.dorsalis distribution does not show a clear northward trend.Further,its total suitable area is likely to increase by 3.2%-7.1%,with a 16.2%-37.5% estimated increase in the highly-suitable area in the south of the Yangtze River.Therefore,future expansion of B.dorsalis to the south of the Yangtze River,mainly to the south of the junction of Sichuan and Chongqing,the Pearl River Delta,Jiangxi,and Fujian,will be highly significant,whereby,timely strengthening of early warning and control measures in these areas are top priorities for research and policy makers.

关 键 词：桔小实蝇 气候变化 MaxEnt模型 适生区分布 北移 

分 类 号：S433[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]