全球变局下的中国宏观经济  

China's Macroeconomy amid Global Changes

作　　者：卢锋[1] 彭文生 陈卫东[4] 殷剑峰[5,6] Lu Feng;Peng Wensheng;Chen Weidong;Yin Jianfeng

机构地区：[1]北京大学国家发展研究院 [2]中金公司 [3]中金研究院 [4]中国银行研究院 [5]对外经济贸易大学 [6]浙商银行

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2024年第6期9-29,4,共22页International Economic Review

摘　　要：新冠疫情以来,世界经济格局发生显著变化,主要经济体增长分化加剧,全球跨境资本流动大幅萎缩,地缘政治紧张局势持续存在。特别地,受美国内外政策及大国博弈影响,全球对外直接投资流动结构发生显著变化。中国产业转移流出风险上升,越南、印度尼西亚、墨西哥、菲律宾等国呈现出典型的承接产业转移特征。受全球变局影响,中国宏观经济处于内外双重失衡状态,突出表现为相对需求不足、经济下行压力、信心与预期偏弱。疫情冲击的“疤痕效应”、房地产拖累、收入分配问题、公共资源分配模式调整、人口总量和结构变化以及外部环境变化是造成当前双重失衡格局的主要原因。解决本轮双重失衡需要政策调节,但完全依靠政策刺激并不能彻底解决问题,还需要财政政策和货币政策以及结构性改革同步发力。借鉴日本1990年危机、美国2007年次贷危机的应对经验,解决当前的经济下行压力和总需求不足问题,关键在于稳定人口数量、提高人口素质,落实党的二十届三中全会的结构性改革目标,积极发挥财政政策和货币政策对宏观经济的调节作用。展望未来,中国宏观经济增长前景可期。从房地产的规模不经济到绿色经济、数字经济的规模新经济的调整过程虽然痛苦,但有助于长远经济发展。Since the COVID-19 pandemic,the global economic landscape has undergone significant changes,featuring intensifying growth divergence of major economies,significantly shrinking global cross-border capital flows,and persisting geopolitical tensions.In particular,affected by the domestic and foreign policies of the United States and the competition between major powers,the structure of global foreign direct investment flows has undergone significant changes.China faces rising risk of industrial outflow,and countries such as Vietnam,Indonesia,Mexico,and the Philippines have shown typical characteristics of ushering in industrial transfer from China.Affected by the changing global economic landscape,China's macroeconomy suffers from both internal and external imbalances,manifested by insufficient relative demand,downward economic growth pressure,and weak confidence and expectations.The"scarring effect"of the pandemic,the drag of real estate on the economy,income distribution issues,adjustments to the public resource allocation model,changes in the total scale and structure of population,and changing external environment are the main reasons for the current dual imbalance pattern.Policy stimulus is needed to solve this round of dual imbalances,but relying solely on stimulus cannot completely solve the problem.It also requires simultaneous efforts from fiscal and monetary policies as well as structural reforms.Japan's crisis in 1990 and the United States'2007 subprime mortgage crisis show that the key to solving China's current problem of downward economic growth pressure and insufficient aggregate demand lies in demographic stability,improvement in the quality of the population,implementation of the structural reform goals set at the Third Plenary Session of the 2Oth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China,and pro-active efforts to bring into play the regulatory role of monetary and fiscal policies on the macroeconomy.Looking ahead,China's macroeconomic growth prospects are promising.Although the transition f

关 键 词：全球变局 双重失衡 规模新经济 跨境资本流动 财政货币政策 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]