本币计价和本币结算:特征事实、理论分析与前景评估  

Local Currency Pricingg and Settlement:Stylizedd Facts,Theoretical Analysis,and Prospect Evaluation

作　　者：张冲 丁剑平[3] 包阳琳 Zhang Chong;Ding Jianping;Bao Yanglin

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院 [2]中国社会科学院大学国家金融与发展实验室 [3]上海财经大学金融学院 [4]上海财经大学浙江学院

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2024年第6期68-102,6,共36页International Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“人民币国际化与货币政策的跨国溢出效应研究”(项目编号:23CJY041)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：双边本币结算是新兴市场和发展中经济体降低美元依赖和规避汇率风险的重要手段。在深入分析计价货币与结算货币内涵和现状的基础上,本文对不同计价货币和结算货币选择下的汇率风险、中国与东盟国家和金砖国家间的双边本币计价和结算可行性进行探析。研究发现:第一,双边本币结算本身虽不能降低企业面临的汇率风险,但降低了汇兑成本和国家层面对外汇储备的依赖;第二,只有本币计价和本币结算结合才能完全转嫁汇率风险;第三,较大的贸易总额和全球价值链(GVC)参与度、较高的产品技术水平、较大的锚货币份额以及较为完善的金融机构网络为人民币本币计价和结算打下坚实的基础,但中国与贸易对象国在金融开放和金融发展水平等方面的不足制约了本币计价和结算的推广;第四,马来西亚、泰国、印度尼西亚、南非、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、越南和巴西具备一定的与中国开展双边本币结算的条件,中国出口的高技术制品,尤其是对俄罗斯、越南、马来西亚和印度尼西亚等国的出口,具备人民币计价的可能。在此基础上,本文从扩大人民币直兑交易、提升贸易规模和产品技术水平、完善中资金融机构海外布局、扩大制度型金融开放、进一步推出并扩大人民币计价期货产品五个方面提出政策建议。Bilateral local currency settlement is an important means of emerging markets and developing economies to reduce their reliance on the US dollar and exchange rate risks.Based on an indepth analysis of the connotations and current status of pricing and settlement currencies,this article explores the exchange rate risks under different choices of pricing and settlement currencies,and the feasibility of bilateral local currency pricing and settlement between China and ASEAN countries as well as BRICS countries.The study finds that:First,while bilateral local currency settlement itself does not reduce the exchange rate risks facing enterprises,it does reduce the risk of exchange rate and a country's reliance on foreign exchange reserves;Second,only the combination of local currency pricing and settlement can completely divert the exchange rate risk;Third,large trade volume and deeper-level participation in global value chains,high production technology level,a significant share of the anchor currency,and wellestablished financial institution network lay a solid foundation for the Renminbi pricing and settlement,but the insufficient financial openness and financial development of China and its trading partners limit the promotion of the renminbi pricing and settlement;Fourth,countries such as Malaysia,Thailand,Indonesia,South Africa,Russia,Saudi Arabia,Vietnam and Brazil have certain conditions to conduct bilateral local currency settlement with China.China's exports of high-tech products,especially those to countries like Russia,Vietnam,Malaysia and Indonesia,have the potential to conduct renminbi pricing.Based on the above analyses,the article proposes policy recommendations from the following five aspects:expanding the direct exchange transactions of renminbi,expanding trade scale and raising production technology level,improving the overseas layout of Chinese financial institutions,expanding institutional financial openness,and launching and expanding the scale of renminbi pricing futures products.

关 键 词：本币计价 双边本币结算 汇率风险 货币国际化 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]